NewsUSA Copyright (c) 2009, MyFeedPortal.com http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com en Making stock and economic news easier to read, bookmark and use! Mon, 24 Apr 2017 09:14:54 +0000 Volatile Stock Markets - Global Economics http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/volatile-stock-markets-global-economics <font size="3"><b>Global Economics Weekly Brief</b><br> <br><i>Volatile Stock Markets</i> - Global Economics and You<br><br>As if volatile stock markets and slower growth weren’t generating enough headlines, China devalued its currency last week. The move, coupled with the country’s manufacturing clout, creates the prospect of more downward pressure on global inflation.</font><br><br><br>So central banks are watching. Is it a ‘yuan time’ move or are more on the way? We forecasted China`s issues/problems two years ago and now they are here `big-time`!.....<br><br><b>Summer discount.</b> China surprised markets by devaluing its currency by 2% against the US dollar. On the face of it it's not a big move. Other emerging market currencies have fallen by much larger amounts this year. Yet it matters. China is the world's largest exporter. And those exports are now getting cheaper and putting downward pressure on already low developed world inflation rates. Indeed, the Bank of England was highlighting the deflationary risks from China earlier this month. To accommodate the deflationary forces, interest rates may have to stay ‘lower for longer’. China have been in trouble for some time and now we are seeing the start of a `real` slow down and pressure on global currencies!...<br> <br><b>Weaker.</b> China's currency devaluation could also be an effort by the Chinese authorities to prop up flagging growth (a lower currency makes exports more competitive). Judging by the latest growth indicators the economy is indeed slowing. At 6%y/y, industrial production is growing at levels not seen since the depths of the financial crisis. Meanwhile, investment growth is slower than at any point in the past ten years with new funds into factories and real estate slowing sharply. Another global boom and bust on its way!...When will people start learning from history!......<br> <br><b>That was expensive.</b> China's credit growth figures for July reveal two stories. Firstly, growth in credit to the real economy appears to be weak as the downturn in the economy intensifies. Second, the government's recent effort to prop up the stock market seems to have resulted in an expensive bill to the country's banks. Bank loans totalled around £150bn with more than 50% going to financial institutions - widely believed to have been various bodies that intervened as stock prices plunged. China was supposed to be letting market forces have a bigger say in the running of the economy. But old habits!….<br> <br><b>Steady.</b> The UK unemployment rate stood at 5.6% in the three months to June. While this was a slight rise on the previous quarter, there is little in the numbers to suggest anything worrying. Rather, the economy seems to have hit something resembling full employment - full in terms of numbers rather than necessarily full of the types of jobs everybody wants. Earnings grew by 2.8%y/y, again unchanged and well above the rate of inflation. And the nation's productivity grew at the fastest rate since Q2 2011. Nice and steady then, but as yet unlikely to move opinion on the Monetary Policy Committee. There are plenty of people unemployed, so train them for a job...now!.....<br> <br><b>Watch this space.</b> UK construction output grew 0.2%q/q in Q2, slightly higher than initially thought. But there was a split. Private house building was the fastest growing sector but house-building by public bodies contracted at a faster rate than any of the other sub-sectors. And it’s down by 10% since the third quarter of 2014. But house building stands to get a boost soon. Companies typically start and finish projects when prices are rising faster. They may not be at the moment, but the reliable monthly indicator from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors suggests they are about to pick up significantly. More higher production and exports are needed for growth!....<br> <br><b>Hell-ena Yeah!</b> The euro zone economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2, slightly slower than Q1's 0.4%. In context, the US managed 0.6% and the UK 0.7%. The stand-out stat award goes to Greece. No, not down. That'll come soon enough. Rather output in the Hellenic Republic expanded by a mighty 0.8%. That's faster than Germany, which may raise an ironic smile for your average Athenian. Closer to home, France's economy stagnated, while Italy's managed a meagre 0.2%. In short, the euro zone economy remains weak, and certainly poorly-placed to resist the eastern wind's deflationary blast. Come on Euro zone countries wake up and drive investment from wealthy people and then increase productivity and growth!...<br> <br><b>Slippery slope.</b> The euro zone's industrial production figures also raise a few concerns about the region’s recovery, with output shrinking 0.4% in June. And it’s the third contraction in the last four months. Germany and Italy stand out, both shrinking by about 1%, whilst France's performance was a rather stagnant -0.2%. That's also the same amount as Greek output was estimated to have shrunk in June. Factory output across the Euro zone is still 1.2% above where it was last year, but that comparison will deteriorate unless the recent run of form is reversed. What are the Euro zone countries doing to increase investment/productivity?<br> <br><b>Still patchy.</b> The US is growing at a decent rate and increasing numbers of people are getting into work but data on performance remain patchy. On the plus side, the number of people registering as unemployed reached its lowest level in 15 years. Retail sales were up 2.6%y/y in July, a solid if unspectacular result. Industrial production edged up, although it was flat if car production was excluded. On the downside, consumer confidence slipped again and core producer price inflation rose only 0.9%y/y. There’s little in these numbers to encourage an early rate rise!....<br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br><br><i>Volatile Stock Markets</i> - Global Economics Fri, 28 Aug 2015 12:49:22 +0000 Greek Bank Closures - Global Economics Weekly http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/greek-bank-closures-global-economics <font size="3"><i>Greek Bank Closures</i><br><br><b>Global Economics Weekly Brief</b><br> <br><br> <br>Bank closures, daily withdrawal limits, a referendum and a resignation. It was an eventful week for Greece and another lies ahead. The country remains the current top economic concern but two venerable institutions were last week warning of other risks that lurk both at home and in the global economy.</font><br><br>Like Greece, debt plays a big part. Greece are a global problem!....Why have Greece been allowed to blackmail the world!...<br><br><br><b>Slow motion</b>. We've all had that moment, when we've knocked the glass, seen it fall slowly to the floor, but remain ignorant to the extent of the damage to come. The context, framing and wisdom of yesterday's vote is already a debate for historians. It's happened. Now we see the consequences. Politics, not economics will decide the eventual outcome for both Greece and the euro. Whatever the direction for both, something has changed irrevocably. Greece are a big problem!....The lenders need to act very quickly as Greece crumbles yet again!....<br> <br><b>Mo' money mo' problems.</b> It’s hardly a beach read but the Bank of England’s twice-yearly assessment of risks to the UK's financial system provided plenty to think about. Top concern was the global economy and in particular the deteriorating situations in Greece and China. Household debt is judged to be the UK‘s key economic weakness and the buy-to-let mortgage market also came in for scrutiny. It’s therefore unsurprising that the Bank is seeking more powers over mortgage lending criteria and performing more demanding stress tests of UK financial resilience. Many challenges ahead!...<br> <br><b>The bigger picture.</b> The Bank for International Settlements, dubbed the central bank of central banks, was also talking financial stability last week in its annual assessment of the global economy. It describes global economic growth as unbalanced, too reliant on debt and delivering too little by way of productivity growth. Meanwhile low interest rates leave hardly any room for central banks to move. The remedy? Policy-makers need to focus less on short-term economic tinkering and near-term inflation targets. Instead they should pursue policies that address structural issues by making labour and product markets more flexible, providing an environment conducive to entrepreneurship and getting more people into work. Why have lenders `given` so much money to Greece? These lenders will never see their money again!... Greece have been continuously mendacious!....<br> <br><b>Steady.</b> The UK economy grew by 0.4% in Q1, slightly faster than first thought but slower than the pretty rapid growth in 2014. Notable was the growth of business investment, which went alongside strong growth in companies’ profits. Interesting was the continued growth in the volume of government output: spending might be going down but we’re getting more operations, lessons taught and other public services for our money. So many challenges ahead!...<br> <br><b>Not coining it in.</b> At 5.8% of GDP the UK current account is close to a record high and has deteriorated over the past year. The problem is that the income the UK earns from investments in businesses abroad has fallen while the inverse (i.e. what foreign businesses earn on their investment in the UK) has risen. To put it another way, the UK isn’t coining it off others as much as others are coining it off the UK. UK government do something about this issue very quickly!...<br> <br><b>Confidence.</b> Business is good according to the latest survey of purchasing managers. In all major economies, the overall PMI indicator showed businesses are growing and in some countries growing well. The UK is a prime example. The services and construction PMIs were around 58, well above the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. And even though manufacturing was a mere 51.4, the sector is still growing. In the Euro zone, you would not be able to tell there is a crisis. The overall PMI, which covers manufacturing and services, was 54.2. Business is growing, just not in Greece!.....<br> <br><b>Hardly news.</b> Unemployment in the euro area held steady at 11.1% in May. So inured are we to such dreadful numbers that they have almost lost their capacity to shock. The rate has been 10% or more in 70 of the last 71 months. In not one single month in the same period has UK unemployment reached 10%. Seven euro states have a rate above 10% while eight are below 7%. It’s not just the Greece crisis that causes the euro area existential angst: such varied job market performance illustrates that this is not a natural currency union. They are all heading to the UK!...<br> <br><b>Hardly surprising.</b> High unemployment reflects weak demand and that’s apparent, too, in still-low inflation. Prices increased by 0.2%y/y in June, down a touch since May. Even with volatile items like energy and food excluded, core inflation was only. 0.8%. Despite the ECB’s quantitative easing bazooka, that’s precisely what core inflation read a year ago. It will take considerable persistence on the part of the central bank to lift the euro area out of “low-inflation”. The Euro zone is still in very deep trouble!..<br> <br><b>The way it is.</b> The US unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in June and the economy added 223k jobs. Average hourly earnings were up 2%y/y. It’s all good news and a sign that underneath some disappointing growth figures of late the US economy remains in decent shape. But it’s unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve into raising rates anytime soon. The US are moving ahead in good tune!....<br> <br><b>Bottoming out?</b> That’s the question China-watchers have begun to ask of the country’s economy, which has been slowing. The answer is we need more evidence. The manufacturing PMI grew a paltry two tenths of a point to 49.6 in June, still indicating a contraction. Indeed, industrial production in the past couple of months has been growing at the same pace as it did in late 2008. But that was in the middle of a financial firestorm when global trade collapsed. China remains beset by two major problems – a troubled banking system and a worn out growth model. A temporary bottoming out of growth cannot mask these issues. China have many problems/issues globally!<br> <br><br>The number of dollar billionaires in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!<br> <br> <br>Global slowdown. China in trouble....Japan just out of trouble...Europe still in trouble....UK hanging on.....US trying harder...Future!.... What is the future?<br> <br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br><i>Greek Bank Closures</i>! - Global Economics Weekly Tue, 07 Jul 2015 10:42:03 +0000 Global Economic Waltz http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/global-economic-waltz <font size="3"><b>Global Economics Weekly Brief</b><br> <br><i>Global Economic Waltz</i><br> <br>The waltz: where dancers hold each other close, spinning in a line of ever-increasing circular intensity yet always ending up in the same place. It can seem the same with Greece’s debt negotiations. But three meetings today could determine whether this is Greece’s last waltz.</font><br><br>If a deal of sorts is reached, which is likely, the dance goes on. Greece needs to enter the `real world!..... Greece have been in a dream for decades!..... Euro zone countries and bankers/lenders need to wake up and be accountable and responsible for their actions of not operating with responsibility over the Greece problem!.....<br><br> <br><b>Bigger problems and many issues</b>. Euro zone annual inflation rose in May to 0.3%. In less strained times it would be a job well done for the European Central Bank (ECB). Its bond-buying programme, among other factors, has helped swiftly free the single-currency area from the hold of deflation. But these aren’t normal times and the ECB has far bigger issues to contend with. Number one is doing all that is politically feasible to keep the Greek economy functioning and Greece in the euro zone. Euro zone in very deep trouble!.....<br> <br><b>You're hired</b>. Although the unemployment rate remained at 5.5% in the three months to April, the UK labour market is in decent shape. For one thing there are jobs aplenty, full-time employee ones too, which are up by 450k since April 2014. And it pays to work as average earnings growth picked up yet again, to 2.7%y/y. Given inflation is at best negligible it’s another welcome rise in workers’ spending power. Wages are low that is why jobs are vacant!...<br> <br><b>Still low</b>. UK official inflation rose in May, by a mere 0.1%y/y. That reverses the 0.1% fall in the year to April. Food, petrol and utility bills remain lower than this time last year, helping cash spread that little but further. Inflation will probably begin to rise later in the year but for now it remains low. So called ‘core inflation’, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, rose just 0.9%y/y, less than half the decade average. Watch very closely over the next few months!....<br> <br><b>No action</b>. Inflation might be a rounding error away from zero but the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee all agreed that no change in policy was needed in June. On their analysis inflation would be 1.5% higher were it not for the falling prices of food, energy and imported goods. They expect these effects to be transitory and for inflation to swing upwards at the end of the year. But it’s far from straightforward. The MPC expected consumers to spend more of the windfall from lower inflation, but at the moment they’re not doing quite as much as thought. That suggests the Bank is getting a little less confident about the UK’s growth for the rest of this year. Growth is very questionable!...<br> <br><b>A blip</b>. Low inflation must be catching, as there was a significant slowing of house price growth in April. Average prices grew by 5.5%y/y, down from 9.6%y/y in April. London's house price growth fell a long way, to 4.3%y/y, the first time it’s been slower than the UK average since 2009. Price growth should pick up again as price expectations have been rising across the UK for a few months now, nowhere more so than in London. Not enough houses for buyers at present so house prices are high!...<br> <br><b>I’ll take both please</b>. Low inflation and higher earnings make a happy combo for consumers and it’s currently good news for retailers too. Retail sales grew a robust 4.4% in volume terms in May. With average growth this year of close to 5%, it’s been the strongest period for retail sales since 2004. Department stores and clothing stores are both seeing strong sales but it’s household goods that are flying off the shelves. Sales are up 12%y/y. Our love of shopping endured forever. How long will last for?...<br> <br><b>Not much to see.</b> US prices increased by 0.4%m/m in May, the biggest jump in more than two years. Gasoline prices were the main culprit, up a whopping 10%. Excluding volatile items like food and energy, core inflation was just 0.1%m/m. Like in the UK, as the effects of last year’s oil price slide slip out of the numbers the headline rate will rise. But there’s no sign of underlying inflationary pressure. That’s one reason the Fed stayed its hand again. Watch very closely the US!...<br> <br><b>Not yet.</b> Fifteen of the Fed’s seventeen policy makers think US interest rates should rise this year. Just when is less clear. Growth has picked up since a poor first quarter and jobs are being created at a decent rate. But inflation is dormant, there’s still slack in the job market and a series of disappointing data releases show that this isn’t an economy running at full tilt. Markets reckon the Fed will hike just before Christmas but it’s a finely-balanced call, with early 2016 quite possible. Interesting, let's see if the US have the b...s to follow this through!....<br> <br><b>IP waiting for you.</b> US economic data continue to confuse as industrial production fell again in May, down 0.2%m/m, after falling by 0.5% in April. Manufacturing output matched the decline in overall production, down 0.2%m/m in May. However, we may well discover that the disappointing manufacturing figures more reflect a stronger dollar and weaker global conditions rather than a weak domestic economy. Indeed, the production of motor vehicles and parts, which tend to reflect US consumer demand, rose by 1.7% in May, the third consecutive monthly rise. Do we believe these statistics?...<br> <br><b>Global slowdown.</b> China in trouble....Japan just out of trouble...Europe still in trouble....UK hanging on.....US trying harder...Future!.... What is the future?<br> <br>The world needs to wake up to their responsibilities!...See below;<br> <br>"<b>The World spent $1,735 BILLION on war in 2012. It would take approximately $135 billion to TOTALLY ERADICATE POVERTY.</b>"<br><br> <br>The number of dollar billionaires in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!<br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br> <br><i>Global Economic Waltz</i><br> Wed, 24 Jun 2015 06:37:08 +0000 Magna Carta - Global Economics Weekly http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/magna-carta-global-economics-weekly <font size="3"><b>Global Economics Weekly Brief</b><br> <br><i>Magna Carta</i><br> <br>800 years ago the barons of medieval England forced King John to agree a limit on monarchical power. This agreement (recognised as the early foundation of individual legal protection and parliamentary democracy) has become known as Magna Carta. And yet debates about the limitations of authority still happen today.</font><br><br>The most recent is the proposal to make it unlawful for governments to run budget deficits “in normal times”. Even today the Magna Carta does not fulfil its obligations that was intended by the Barons in 1215!......<br> <br> <br> <br><b>Tough new rules.</b> George Osborne’s announced new rules for tax and spending that restricts, in law, governments to running a budget surplus “in normal times”. As yet “normal” remains undefined, but the intention would likely allow deficits when the economy is either in or recovering from a recession. The intention is to lock future administrations into reducing public debt as a share of national income. Yet you don’t actually need a budget surplus to shrink the ratio. You just need economic growth to be greater than the deficit. Lower interest rates help too. And of course if all else fails there’s always the emergency button labelled ‘inflation’, which is tempting, dangerous but ultimately flawed. Excellent...make people responsible and accountable for their actions!...<br> <br><b>The Producers.</b> The pre-election period was generally a good one for the UK's makers, producers and utilities suppliers. Overall production grew by a solid 0.6%q/q in the three months to April. However, oil and gas again bucked the trend with output falling by more than 5%. Yet viewed though a longer lens it’s clear most production sectors have struggled since the crisis. Only car production has managed to do better than the services sector since the start of 2008. Energy costs are still too high and the energy giants need to be brought to account for profiteering on a continuous basis!...<br> <br><b>Chemical nation.</b> The UK's yawning trade deficit narrowed to £1.2bn in April, due to rising exports and falling imports. More demand from abroad offers much needed succour to British exporters operating in an otherwise lacklustre global economy. Behind the figures lies a huge rise in the export of chemicals. Not only did this help offset a countervailing drop in oil exports but, as most crossed the Atlantic, it's additional evidence that the US economy is doing okay. Still more exports are needed to challenge the future success!...Also, imports need to decrease now!....<br> <br><b>Building blocks</b>. UK construction slipped in April as repair and maintenance projects fell, whilst new housing building picked up slightly. This overall growth of 1.5% compared to April 2014 is helpful, but still leaves output in the construction sector 3.5% below where it was in 2007, getting on for eight years ago. The gap between construction and the rest of the economy, which is now 4% larger than before the recession, continues to grow. More growth required to meet demand!....At present profiteering continues!...<br> <br><b>Ain’t no mountain high enough.</b> Estate agents expect UK house prices to start climbing again. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors survey showed a big jump in the expectations for house price growth in six months' time. And the biggest turnaround is in London, where expectations have soared. The reason is simple and all too familiar - demand is far out-stripping supply. The difference between new buyer enquiries and new instructions to sell is at its highest in over a year. No surprise then that 1 in 6 new mortgages is now for a Buy-to-Let property, not far short of the 1 in 5 to first time buyers. Estate agents are pushing up house prises again for pure profit and there will be another boom and bust just around the corner!...<br> <br><b>Cost of living.</b> Traditionally the inflation figures are based on information collected by people visiting shops. With internet sales increasingly important, official statisticians have been looking at those prices and there’s a large gap between the two. Take food and drink. The official Index says prices fell by 2.6%y/y in May. But the new, trial method records a fall of 6.3%. If repeated for other items, that would mean we are much better off than the data have been reporting. And it’s another salutary lesson about just how heavily we should rely on any economic statistics (not of course, economic commentary!). Do we?....<br> <br><b>Outside influences.</b> The euro zone economy grew 0.4% in Q1 from Q4 2014, faster than both the UK and the US. Domestic demand is in decent shape. Household consumption is growing at its pre-crisis pace and investment is on the up. With a 0.9%q/q expansion, Spain led the charge among the big economies. But exports are weak because overseas demand is subdued. Industrial production rose just 0.1% in the month to April. But while Ireland achieved growth of almost 10% in the last 12 months, Italy and France have crawled along with 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Europe is still in trouble so do not be fooled by this mini rise!...<br> <br><b>Encouraging.</b> US retail sales increased by 2.7%y/y in May. Especially notable was the 8.2% jump spent on eating out. That’s the kind of discretionary spending people make only when they are confident about their finances. Decent retail sales numbers are another indicator that growth is accelerating after a poor Q1. At the moment it’s Goldilocks growth: not too fast, not too slow. Inflation remains muted although there are signs of wage growth picking-up. As far as the Fed is concerned, there’s nothing to see here. It can leave rates where they are when it meets this week. Watch the US very closely!....<br><br><b>About the Author Colin Thompson</b><br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br><i>Magna Carta</i> - <i>Global Economics</i> Weekly Tue, 16 Jun 2015 08:29:27 +0000 Slow Emerge - Global Economics Weekly http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/slow-emerge-global-economics-weekly <font size="3"><b>Global Economics Weekly Brief</b><br> <br><i>Slow Emerge</i><br> <br>There are welcome signs that Europe’s economy is slowly emerging from its prolonged slump. It’s a pity then that agreement with Greece remains unfinished business. Securing that deal would remove the Damoclean sword that hangs over the currency zone’s prospects. Only a few Euro zone countries are improving!...</font><br><br>Greece are just hanging in and playing games which are not professional and exclusion from Europe may be the only way for them to `do their own thing`!....<br> <br>Most parents will be familiar with the anguished cry of “it wasn’t my fault”. And if they could speak, both the US and UK economies would probably be making it. Both had a lacklustre Q1, the US especially. And in both it was caused in large part by a worsening balance of trade. For the US, a poor economic performance reflects soggy global demand more than does domestic factors. Global slow down!.....<br><br><br> <br><b>Re-inflating</b>. May seems to have brought the Euro zone's experiment with deflation to an end. Prices were 0.3% higher than a year ago and core prices, which exclude food and energy, were up 0.9%. Inflation’s return will cheer the European Central Bank (ECB) which is busy buying bonds (quantitative easing) in an attempt to boost the economy. But celebrations will be muted as there are plenty of countries where prices are still falling!.....<br> <br><b>Slowly, slowly.</b> Euro zone unemployment ticked down a notch to 11.1% in April, leaving it 0.6% lower than a year ago. It’s been slow going. Unemployment in Italy is basically unchanged over the last year, whilst France is heading in the wrong direction. Even Spain, the fastest growing major economy, still has a jobless rate of over 20%. On a brighter note one of the better performers was Ireland. Its recovery has helped unemployment fall by 2%, but the 46,000 newly-employed Irish workers are very much in the minority compared with the Euro zone's 17.8 million job-seekers. That is because most wish to come to the UK to work!...<br> <br><b>Slightly less crazy.</b> The ECB promised to buy Euro zone government debt at a rate of €60bn a month until September 2016, unless there was a big change in the economic outlook. But far from pushing interest rates on government bonds down, yields have risen in recent weeks. The interest rate on 10-year German debt got as low as 0.07% in April, but is now up in slightly more normal territory of 0.8%. That’s still very low, but it is back above Japan’s yields and shows the markets have some confidence that the European economy will eventually escape its current predicament. The Euro zone countries have a very long way to go before celebrating success!...<br> <br><b>Europe vs. US.</b> European firms reported decent, if slightly slower growth in May. The Euro zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slid from 53.9 in April to 53.6 as growth eased in Germany, Spain and Italy. France bucked the trend, but at just 52 it still dragged down the average. Two months into Q2 this suggests the Euro zone should have another respectable quarter in terms of GDP growth. Slow growth forecasted!...<br> <br><b>Pass or fail? It's exam time.</b> If students were asked, "how is the US economy faring?" more than a few would struggle to answer. GDP shrank in Q1 and the supply managers say service sector growth slowed in May. Yet the jobs machine was running at full tilt last month, employment rising by 280,000. Wage growth continues to pick up. Ambiguous data mean the Fed will wait a while before hiking but, on balance, the US economy looks in good shape. Watch this space!.... More change to come!...<br> <br><b>Submerging markets.</b> Last week's PMIs continue to point to struggles across the emerging economies. A composite PMI of the main emerging markets fell from 51.3 to 50.7, the third consecutive fall and lowest reading in a year. China continues to languish. But the sharpest deterioration in recent months has come from Brazil, with output across manufacturing and services contracting and jobs being cut. And because of high inflation the central bank has been raising rates, even as the economy struggles. Emerging economies are having a tough time of it!...<br> <br><b>May's modesty vase.</b> Managers in the UK’s manufacturing and construction sectors reported a modest rebound in activity in May, with the PMI edging up to 52 and 55.9 respectively. Relatively robust orders from home-grown customers are compensating for weak international demand, a further sign that the global economy is out-of-sorts. And it would be foolish to see a turnaround in construction as the first stirring of the sector's Rocky-like comeback, rising up and back on its feet. It may do, but it's been down and it's too early to call. In a mirror image, service sector managers reported a modest slowdown in activity in May. The sector's doing alright. No more, no less.<br> <br><b>Jump.</b> Mortgage approvals in the UK rose by 10%m/m to 68,000. No doubt the new stamp duty regimes were partly responsible, so we will have to await the next couple of months' numbers to get a proper picture of the underlying strength of the market. House price growth has slowed according to Nationwide and Halifax but all indications are that it will pick up again soon. Meanwhile, interest rates on fixed rate mortgages fell again: an average two year fixed rate mortgage for someone with a 25% deposit now down to 1.95%. Estate agents are hiking the house prices again!... Do we see boom and bust again soon?...<br> <br><b>One bill to rule them all.</b> A 'one nation' Queen's Speech contained an ambitious 25 bills. The ambitions lie not with their quantity but with their goals. One bill aims to lower the benefits cap, another to raise the income tax threshold. There are bills to extend free child care and the Right to Buy. And then there’s constitutional reform involving further devolution. Overshadowing them all is the referendum on Britain's EU membership. It’s often a long, sometimes tortuous, and not always successful journey for a bill to become law. Yet as many of these proposals were in the manifesto, it reduces the risk that the Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, will block a bill’s progress to the statute book. Will it happen?....<br> <br><b>As you were</b>. Q1 GDP growth was still estimated at 0.3% in the ONS’s second release and therefore remains disappointing. But the detail shed some light on why hopes were higher and the economy looks stronger on lots of other measures. Households continued to spend, with consumption rising 0.5% on the quarter, businesses were investing too, but the spoiler was international trade. A surge in imports knocked 0.8% off the Q1 growth figure. A dismal performance yes, but one that largely reverses a strong contribution from trade in Q4 2014. Over the past year domestic demand has risen by an average of 0.7% a quarter, that’s probably closer to the sort of growth most UK businesses are experiencing. Growth...what growth?...<br> <br><b>Back into the groove?</b> Business investment turned in a good performance in Q1, growing by 1.7% from Q4. Hopefully this signals a return to healthier levels of growth after the renaissance in business investment fizzled out in the second half of 2014. Investment in new vehicles, buildings, ICT equipment and machinery and intellectual property is growing but at a slower pace. Confidence in the sustainability of the UK's recovery could be cemented if growth in these areas can move up through the gears. We will see!...<br> <br><b>Election, what election?</b> The election came and the election went. At least, that was the message from the latest retail survey by the Confederation of British Industry. Not only was reported sales growth the second strongest reported since 2010, expectations of sales growth in the coming month hit a 27-year high. The ONS reported that retail sales (excluding fuel) grew by a solid 2.8%y/y in April. It looks like the numbers for this month and next will be even better. Since 1959, UK consumer spending has risen around the time of all but one election. What will the future bring?...<br> <br><b>Where the money is.</b> Across all the 173 UK mini-regions, average household disposable incomes were higher in 2013 than 2008. Yet only one in five of these regions saw income growth keep pace with the cost of living. Orkney came out in first place, with average incomes up 27%, while the good burghers of the otherwise prosperous London borough of Wandsworth managed just 2.3%. The differences between regional incomes have remained largely unchanged since 1997, with one important exception. The top two regions (both in London) saw their average disposable income pull further away from the average. Big gap north and south and getting bigger!...<br> <br><b>More puzzling still</b>. US GDP fell at an annualised rate of 0.7% in Q1. The main culprit was a sharp fall in exports, down 7.6%. That might reflect the temporary effects of problems at ports but it could also be a result of weakening Asian growth. While spending by Americans rose by 1.1%, it was slower than in Q1. So, both overseas and domestic demand disappointed. Yet the US is adding more than 200,000 jobs per month. Reconciling these figures is a challenge. They also give the Fed no cause to consider raising rates soon. Global slow down...what is the future?...<br> <br><b>Cooling and heating.</b> US house prices increased by 4.1%y/y in March, according to Case Shiller. A year ago inflation was more than 10% but the decline from there has been the gentlest of glides. Slower economic growth should mean further falls from here. But demand growth remains strong. Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator, were up 3.6%m/m in April and 14.0%y/y. Applications for mortgages to buy a house were also up 14%y/y. Looks good!...<br> <br> <br><b>Forget 2014.</b> Back then, the UK and US were the fastest-growing G7 economies. Now the UK has slipped into deflation and US growth appears to be stalling. In contrast, the euro zone's surpassing expectations, with support from the ‘Hero’s’ at the European Central Bank. Europe’s not just become an arena for staging an annual high-camp pop-fest you know. Congratulations to Sweden.<br> <br><b>Nocturne.</b> UK consumer prices fell by 0.1% in April compared to the same month last year. But this is unlikely to herald the start of a long night of deflation, à la Japan. For now it’s more of an economic boon as falling prices helpfully boost household incomes. Food, fuel bills and petrol pump prices are all lower than they were this time last year. And inflationary pressures are undoubtedly muted. Core inflation, which strips out both energy and food prices, fell to 0.8%y/y in April, the lowest since 2001. The Bank of England can afford to be patient.<br> <br><b>All kinds of everything.</b> UK retail sales growth is robust. Sales volumes are up by about 5%y/y, double the 2.5%y/y average since 1997. Although all the major sectors are benefiting, the pick of the bunch is household goods stores (up 11%y/y), while supermarkets are propping up the table (up 1.6%y/y). These are solid figures and a strong hint that wider consumption improved in April. Yet without equally robust income growth, it's hard to see how it can be sustained.<br> <br><b>Fairytale.</b> The UK public sector borrowed £87.7bn last financial year, a full £2.5bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility expected at the time of the last Budget. Income tax revenues are growing again, which is a good thing, as it suggests that we can expect some sort of pick-up in average earnings growth in the near term. This will all come as very happy news to the Treasury as we head towards the next Budget announcement on 8th July.<br> <br><b>Boom Bang-a-Bang.</b> National house price growth was 8.5%y/y in Q1, still far faster than income growth. And the number of houses built in England over the last year increased to 97k, up from 90k in the previous financial year. Also, there’s little sign that the Bank of England's will have to step in to rein-in risky mortgage borrowing. In brief, it’s business as usual in the short term for the UK housing market, even if the longer term housing challenges have not gone away.<br> <br><b>Save all your kisses for me.</b> We already knew that the typical worker's weekly pay rose 0.1% in 2014. Last week, ONS explained why people who had held the same job for over a year saw pay rise 4.1%. People starting jobs are younger and less skilled than those leaving them. Employees staying in a job tend to benefit from rises during the year. And the bargaining power of some people looking for work is limited by the fact that they are unemployed. So, while the difference between stickers and twisters is large, it's perfectly normal.<br> <br><b>Rise Like a Phoenix.</b> Euro zone annual inflation was 0% in April, up from -0.1% in March. So the single currency region has escaped from the lake of deflation, even if it's not quite reached the familiar shore of inflation either. Although the slow journey out of deflation echoes the relative improvement in general economic activity across the euro zone, the main cause lies more with the weakening downward pull of falling energy prices. So it’s best to keep a sense of perspective. The European Central Bank aims to keep annual price rises near to but below 2%. That's a long way away. Don’t expect a let-up in its bond-buying programme soon.<br> <br><b>I Want to.</b> Although business activity in euro zone slowed a little in May, firms want to increase staff. The euro zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 53.4 in May, from the slightly higher 53.9 in April, still nicely above the neutral 50-mark. The region’s makers are reporting stronger business, while the services sector slowed. But the most welcome news was that firms are hiring staff at the fastest pace in three years. What’s often overlooked is that while productivity is important, what really matters in the short term, especially for the euro zone, is jobs dear boy, jobs. <br> <br><b>Hold me now.</b> The last time the Fed raised interest rates George W Bush was a first term President and Greece was winning Europe’s football championship. Neither of these is likely to happen again and we’ll wait a while yet before the Fed hikes. The minutes of its April meeting showed members concerned about the recent weakening performance. They put that down mainly to one-off factors but niggles remained that something more troubling is at work. With inflation still quiescent markets believe rates will remain on hold until December.<br> <br><b>Global slowdown.</b> China in trouble....Japan just out of trouble...Europe still in trouble....UK hanging on.....US trying harder...Future!....<br> <br> <br>The number of dollar billionaires in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!<br> <br> <br>What will the future bring?<br><br>b]About the Author Colin Thompson[/b]<br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br><i>Slow Emerge - Global Economics Weekly</i> Tue, 09 Jun 2015 06:52:29 +0000 Global Slow Down - Economics Weekly http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/global-slow-down-economics-weekly <font size="3">Global Slow Down - Economics Weekly<br><br>Global Economics Weekly Brief<br> <br> <br> <br>Most parents will be familiar with the anguished cry of “it wasn’t my fault”. And if they could speak, both the US and UK economies would probably be making it. Both had a lacklustre Q1, the US especially.</font><br><br>And in both it was caused in large part by a worsening balance of trade. For the US, a poor economic performance reflects soggy global demand more than does domestic factors. <i>Global slow down!</i>.....<br><br> <br><b> One bill to rule them all.</b> A 'one nation' Queen's Speech contained an ambitious 25 bills. The ambitions lie not with their quantity but with their goals. One bill aims to lower the benefits cap, another to raise the income tax threshold. There are bills to extend free child care and the Right to Buy. And then there’s constitutional reform involving further devolution. Overshadowing them all is the referendum on Britain's EU membership. It’s often a long, sometimes tortuous, and not always successful journey for a bill to become law. Yet as many of these proposals were in the manifesto, it reduces the risk that the Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, will block a bill’s progress to the statute book. Will it happen?....<br> <br><b>As you were.</b> Q1 GDP growth was still estimated at 0.3% in the ONS’s second release and therefore remains disappointing. But the detail shed some light on why hopes were higher and the economy looks stronger on lots of other measures. Households continued to spend, with consumption rising 0.5% on the quarter, businesses were investing too, but the spoiler was international trade. A surge in imports knocked 0.8% off the Q1 growth figure. A dismal performance yes, but one that largely reverses a strong contribution from trade in Q4 2014. Over the past year domestic demand has risen by an average of 0.7% a quarter, that’s probably closer to the sort of growth most UK businesses are experiencing. Growth...what growth?...<br> <br><b>Back into the groove?</b> Business investment turned in a good performance in Q1, growing by 1.7% from Q4. Hopefully this signals a return to healthier levels of growth after the renaissance in business investment fizzled out in the second half of 2014. Investment in new vehicles, buildings, ICT equipment and machinery and intellectual property is growing but at a slower pace. Confidence in the sustainability of the UK's recovery could be cemented if growth in these areas can move up through the gears. We will see!...<br> <br><b>Election, what election?</b> The election came and the election went. At least, that was the message from the latest retail survey by the Confederation of British Industry. Not only was reported sales growth the second strongest reported since 2010, expectations of sales growth in the coming month hit a 27-year high. The ONS reported that retail sales (excluding fuel) grew by a solid 2.8%y/y in April. It looks like the numbers for this month and next will be even better. Since 1959, UK consumer spending has risen around the time of all but one election. What will the future bring?...<br> <br><b>Where the money is.</b> Across all the 173 UK mini-regions, average household disposable incomes were higher in 2013 than 2008. Yet only one in five of these regions saw income growth keep pace with the cost of living. Orkney came out in first place, with average incomes up 27%, while the good burghers of the otherwise prosperous London borough of Wandsworth managed just 2.3%. The differences between regional incomes have remained largely unchanged since 1997, with one important exception. The top two regions (both in London) saw their average disposable income pull further away from the average. Big gap north and south and getting bigger!...<br> <br><b>More puzzling still.</b> US GDP fell at an annualised rate of 0.7% in Q1. The main culprit was a sharp fall in exports, down 7.6%. That might reflect the temporary effects of problems at ports but it could also be a result of weakening Asian growth. While spending by Americans rose by 1.1%, it was slower than in Q1. So, both overseas and domestic demand disappointed. Yet the US is adding more than 200,000 jobs per month. Reconciling these figures is a challenge. They also give the Fed no cause to consider raising rates soon. Global slow down...what is the future?...<br> <br><b>Cooling and heating.</b> US house prices increased by 4.1%y/y in March, according to Case Shiller. A year ago inflation was more than 10% but the decline from there has been the gentlest of glides. Slower economic growth should mean further falls from here. But demand growth remains strong. Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator, were up 3.6%m/m in April and 14.0%y/y. Applications for mortgages to buy a house were also up 14%y/y. Looks good!...<br> <br> <br><b>Forget 2014.</b> Back then, the UK and US were the fastest-growing G7 economies. Now the UK has slipped into deflation and US growth appears to be stalling. In contrast, the euro zone's surpassing expectations, with support from the ‘Hero’s’ at the European Central Bank. Europe’s not just become an arena for staging an annual high-camp pop-fest you know. Congratulations to Sweden.<br> <br><b>Nocturne.</b> UK consumer prices fell by 0.1% in April compared to the same month last year. But this is unlikely to herald the start of a long night of deflation, à la Japan. For now it’s more of an economic boon as falling prices helpfully boost household incomes. Food, fuel bills and petrol pump prices are all lower than they were this time last year. And inflationary pressures are undoubtedly muted. Core inflation, which strips out both energy and food prices, fell to 0.8%y/y in April, the lowest since 2001. The Bank of England can afford to be patient.<br> <br><b>All kinds of everything.</b> UK retail sales growth is robust. Sales volumes are up by about 5%y/y, double the 2.5%y/y average since 1997. Although all the major sectors are benefiting, the pick of the bunch is household goods stores (up 11%y/y), while supermarkets are propping up the table (up 1.6%y/y). These are solid figures and a strong hint that wider consumption improved in April. Yet without equally robust income growth, it's hard to see how it can be sustained.<br> <br><b>Fairytale.</b> The UK public sector borrowed £87.7bn last financial year, a full £2.5bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility expected at the time of the last Budget. Income tax revenues are growing again, which is a good thing, as it suggests that we can expect some sort of pick-up in average earnings growth in the near term. This will all come as very happy news to the Treasury as we head towards the next Budget announcement on 8th July.<br> <br><b>Boom Bang-a-Bang</b>. National house price growth was 8.5%y/y in Q1, still far faster than income growth. And the number of houses built in England over the last year increased to 97k, up from 90k in the previous financial year. Also, there’s little sign that the Bank of England's will have to step in to rein-in risky mortgage borrowing. In brief, it’s business as usual in the short term for the UK housing market, even if the longer term housing challenges have not gone away.<br> <br><b>Save all your kisses for me.</b> We already knew that the typical worker's weekly pay rose 0.1% in 2014. Last week, ONS explained why people who had held the same job for over a year saw pay rise 4.1%. People starting jobs are younger and less skilled than those leaving them. Employees staying in a job tend to benefit from rises during the year. And the bargaining power of some people looking for work is limited by the fact that they are unemployed. So, while the difference between stickers and twisters is large, it's perfectly normal.<br> <br><b>Rise Like a Phoenix.</b> Euro zone annual inflation was 0% in April, up from -0.1% in March. So the single currency region has escaped from the lake of deflation, even if it's not quite reached the familiar shore of inflation either. Although the slow journey out of deflation echoes the relative improvement in general economic activity across the euro zone, the main cause lies more with the weakening downward pull of falling energy prices. So it’s best to keep a sense of perspective. The European Central Bank aims to keep annual price rises near to but below 2%. That's a long way away. Don’t expect a let-up in its bond-buying programme soon.<br> <br><b>I Want to.</b> Although business activity in euro zone slowed a little in May, firms want to increase staff. The euro zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 53.4 in May, from the slightly higher 53.9 in April, still nicely above the neutral 50-mark. The region’s makers are reporting stronger business, while the services sector slowed. But the most welcome news was that firms are hiring staff at the fastest pace in three years. What’s often overlooked is that while productivity is important, what really matters in the short term, especially for the euro zone, is jobs dear boy, jobs. <br> <br><b>Hold me now.</b> The last time the Fed raised interest rates George W Bush was a first term President and Greece was winning Europe’s football championship. Neither of these is likely to happen again and we’ll wait a while yet before the Fed hikes. The minutes of its April meeting showed members concerned about the recent weakening performance. They put that down mainly to one-off factors but niggles remained that something more troubling is at work. With inflation still quiescent markets believe rates will remain on hold until December.<br> <br><b><i>Global slowdown</i>.</b> China in trouble....Japan just out of trouble...Europe still in trouble....UK hanging on.....US trying harder...Future!....<br> <br> <br>The number of dollar billionaires in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!<br> <br> <br>What will the future bring?<br> <br>b]About the Author Colin Thompson[/b]<br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br>Global Slow Down! Fri, 05 Jun 2015 06:56:10 +0000 Survey Says... Global Economics Weekly http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/survey-says-economics <font size="3">Global Economics Weekly Brief<br> <br>Survey Says...<br> <br>If nothing else, the UK General Election confirmed the need always to approach surveys cautiously. Nevertheless, the reported business optimism of UK and US service sector managers suggests both economies stepped up a gear in April.</font><br><br>These surveys should prove to be more reliable. More challenges ahead globally!.....<br><br> <br><b>The more things change the more they stay the same.</b> The Conservatives won a majority of seats in Westminster, meaning a change of UK Government if not a change in Prime Minister or Chancellor. A key requirement for the new Government will be a new spending review detailing exactly how much government departments will get to spend over the next five years. In the meantime the public sector will continue to work to the tax and spending plans laid out by the Coalition until an emergency Budget is called, possibly June. The UK needs to spend less and save more for the future!....<br> <br><b>Solid start.</b> Business managers in Britain's dominant service sector are in buoyant mood. April's services’ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the first for Q2, rose to 59.5, significantly above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction. That's the fastest rate of expansion for eight months, suggesting the UK economy is growing faster than the 0.3% estimated for Q1. And as service firms do more business they hire more staff. So, the early summer outlook for both businesses and workers alike seems sunny. When you have an excellent strategy with the `right` people the future will be successful!....<br> <br><b>A breather.</b> The UK construction sector added to a disappointing first quarter by reporting a slowdown in growth in April. The sector’s PMI reading stumbled from 57.8 to 54.2. Nonetheless, it’s above 50 and growth is growth. Perhaps surprisingly, house-building slowed by more than commercial property construction and civil engineering projects. That should prove temporary and cement mixers should start turning faster in the months ahead. The future is more promising now there is a new Conservative UK government in the driving seat!....<br> <br><b>Cannot buy, will not buy.</b> This year is turning into a real challenge for UK exporters. The value of UK exports of goods and services fell by 1%y/y in Q1. Conditions are unfavourable not least because of the slowdown in many emerging markets and, as yet, exporters are yet to feel the benefit of the nascent euro zone recovery. Indeed, the UK's goods trade deficit with the EU reached £21.5bn, double the amount of just four years ago. Stronger demand from the euro zone, particularly economic heavies like Germany, France and even Italy, would provide a real and well needed-boost to UK exporters. The future will/could be rosy!...<br> <br><b>Latin learners.</b> News that the euro zone economy is growing again will be welcomed on both sides of the channel. The latest PMI survey data for the region showed that output continued to grow in April and at a rate around 0.5%q/q. That's faster than the current estimate for both the UK and the US. Spain is growing at its fastest rate in eight and a half years and even Italy's growth is at a 10-month high. Yet it was Groundhog Day again for France's economy, which barely grew in April. Still more challenges ahead!....<br> <br><b>Relax.</b> After a run of ropey numbers the US economy seems to be back on track, adding 223,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate remained at 5.4%, meaning a growing economy is attracting people back to the job market. That increasing supply of workers is one reason wage growth was muted. If you want to worry about one thing for the US it's productivity. Output barely grew in Q1 but employment increased. Has “The Puzzle” crossed The Pond? This is a global issue!..<br> <br><b>More to come.</b> If the Institute of Supply Management is correct, the US is set to bounce back from a disappointing Q1. The non-manufacturing sector index jumped by 1.3 points to 57.8 in April. That should mean brisk growth in the part of the economy that accounts for more than 85% of output. Particularly encouraging was the strengthening of new orders, which suggests expansion will continue. Job growth remained strong but inflation was nowhere to be seen. Message to the Fed: take the next few months off. Watch this space!....<br> <br><b>An old seesaw.</b> With the US, UK and now euro zone PMIs looking healthy, we could expect the global PMI to tell a similar story. But that’s not quite the case. In contrast to the advanced economies, the emerging markets PMI fell to a three-month low of 51.3 in April, with China registering its weakest reading since January. Similarly India's PMI was the weakest since October while Brazil's economic troubles resulted in the lowest reading since the financial crisis. When you add both advanced and emerging economies together the global PMI is at its long-run average and it’s being led by the old world not the new. There is a general global slow down...so be very careful!....<br><br><br><b>About the Author Colin Thompson</b><br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br>Survey Says... Global Economics Weekly Tue, 12 May 2015 19:32:07 +0000 Global Economics Weekly Brief - US and UK http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/global-economics-weekly-brief-us-uk <font size="3"><b>Global Economics Weekly Brief</b><br> <br><i>US and UK Quarter 1 Economics</i>...<br> <br>The fortunes of the US and UK economies often appear united. So it proved in Q1 when activity in both slowed by more than expected.</font><br><br>For the US this softness can be reasonably attributed to yet another severe east-coast winter. That’s not the case for the UK. Nonetheless, output in both economies should accelerate in the current quarter. More challenges ahead globally!....<br><br> <br><b>Slow down.</b> The UK economy expanded by a decidedly lacklustre 0.3% in Q1 this year. That’s half the rate recorded in Q4 2014 and unexpectedly brings to an end the UK’s run of above-trend growth. Services did best, growing by 0.5%, whilst manufacturing managed just 0.1% and construction shrank for the second consecutive quarter. Further evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing growth was provided by the sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for March, which showed a sizeable fall from 54 to 51.9. What is clear is that an extra 248,000 workers, about 0.8% of the workforce, helped generate economic growth of 0.3%. Unless the final figure ends up closer to 1%, which is unlikely, then productivity almost certainly fell, again. The UK is slowing down like the rest of the world!.....<br> <br><b>Up close and personal in the UK.</b> The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase fell slightly in March. The figures suggest that house price inflation will continue to soften in the coming months. That’s no bad thing. Personal credit growth continued apace in March though, up by £1.2bn compared with February. It seems consumers are finding their mojo and wanting to borrow. This in turn is helping the high street. People are waiting until after the General Election to see what government party is in power!...<br> <br><b>Seasonal affective disorder.</b> US GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1. On the face of it, that's cause for concern. But the story is more nuanced. Consumption grew by 1.9%, not a sign of an economy in trouble. Investment was down. But the biggest drag was the 7% fall in exports. For a few years now US performance in Q1 has been surprisingly weak. It's possible that the seasonal adjustments made to the raw numbers aren't doing their job well enough, pushing down reported growth. All this said, the pace of US growth looks to have slowed in recent months!...<br> <br><b>No change in the US.</b> With growth slowing and no sign of inflationary pressure on the horizon the Fed likely spent little time debating the merits of raising interest rates at its meeting last week. Kremlinologists parsed its statement for signs of when that will happen and markets reckon its December meeting will see the first move. On one thing the Fed remains clear: even when that day has been and gone, rates could continue to remain low for a considerable time. More challenges ahead yet again!...<br> <br><b>Easy does it.</b> US house prices rose by 4.2% y/y in February according to Case-Shiller. The rate of inflation has been moderating for over a year now. That’s welcome. Prices that rise at a pace closer to income growth are more sustainable than the double-digit rises of early 2014. Low interest rates, rising employment and generally decent consumer confidence, along with a steadily tightening supply of houses should mean that slower inflation doesn’t slip into outright price falls. Is it boom and bust again?...<br> <br><b>Against the odds.</b> Like the UK, US business managers remain more up-beat about activity than official figures suggest. The US service-sector PMI was 57.8 in April, high above the 50-mark signalling expansion and besting the series average of 55.9. As the service sector accounts for almost 80 cents in every $1 of output in the US, this bodes well for a turnaround in economic performance in Q2. Managers’ optimism is encouraging them to take on staff at the fastest rate since summer 2014. Spring may only just have sprung, but for the US, it brings hope of better economic weather!...<br> <br><b>Much too much, much too young.</b> The healing of the euro zone's labour market is painfully slow. Unemployment was unchanged at a rate of 11.3% between February and March. Despite an upturn in the economy in recent months unemployment is down a mere 0.1% from Q4 last year. Of course the recovery remains in its infancy and it will take many quarters of decent growth to start making sizable dents into the euro zone's unemployment rate. And divergences between countries remain stark. Spain's unemployment rate remains a staggering 23%. Fixing that is a generational project. The Euro zone countries are still in deep trouble and how can they reverse this?....The future is very bleak!....<br> <br><b>A licence to print money.</b> Euro zone inflation moved from -0.1% in February to 0% in March, as energy price declines eased slightly and food price inflation moved marginally higher. Inflation should begin to rise very gently in the coming months but, like the UK and elsewhere, price pressures are generally subdued. Core euro zone inflation was just 0.6%y/y, unchanged from February. With core inflation so low and unemployment proving sticky, the European Central Bank can keep its foot to the floor with its €60-billion-a-month quantitative easing programme. How will this quantitative easing programme help?....Very little at present!.....<br><b> <br>Another deflation candidate?</b> China's consumer prices rose by just 0.8%y/y in April, the slowest pace in over five years. In echoes of Western economies, it has given rise to fears that China is headed for a period of deflation. There are certainly other reasons to be worried. The property market suffers from oversupply, there is excess capacity in parts of its industrial sector and producer prices have been in outright deflation for three years. On this basis it's reasonable to assume the Chinese authorities will continue to ease monetary policy as they have done in recent months. China boom is turning to bust!!<br> <br><b>The number of dollar billionaires</b> in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!<br> <br>What will the future bring?<br> <br> <br>Please share your views.<br> <br>More Deflation!... Very Interesting Information....<br>http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/deflation-economics-weekly<br><br><br><br><b>About the Author Colin Thompson</b><br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br><br><i>US and UK</i> Quarter 1 Economics Thu, 07 May 2015 10:31:54 +0000 Life Game Rules http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/life-game-rules <font size="3">==================<br><i><b>Rules for the game of life...</b></i><br>==================<br> <br> <br>"<b>The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.</b>"</font><br><br> -- Eleanor Roosevelt<br><br> <br><b>If Life Is a Game… These Are the Rules<br><br>10 Rules for Being Human</b><br><br>“<i>Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.</i>” –Helen Keller<br><br>Dr. Chérie Carter-Scott has transformed lives with her book, If Life Is a Game…These Are the Rules. Millions of copies of this New York Times bestseller have been sold and it is used as a text in 100 universities and colleges throughout the U.S. But, there is more to the story behind the book.<br><br>One of three sisters, Chérie grew up in a wealthy, but turbulent home with an alcoholic mother and a high-powered father. From the outside, the family appeared to live a life of privilege, but behind closed doors, they dealt with her mother’s violent mood swings, while she literally drank herself to death.<br><br>While educated at some of the nation’s finest schools, Chérie’s dysfunctional family life left her struggling to find meaning in her life.<br><br>After her father’s death, she and her sisters found that they were disinherited. Life, as they had known it, was over.<br><br>Her traumatic childhood was the impetus for Chérie to look for answers to life’s deepest questions. Here's how her experience led to the creation of the 10 Rules for Being Human:<br><br>I realized that what I make of my life was up to me. I began to ask fundamental questions, "What is this notion of happiness? How do I create fulfilment? What is the purpose of life?"<br><br>In 1974, when I was 25 years old, I passed through a premature midlife crisis. I had pursued a career in teaching to please my mother, and then a career in acting to please myself... neither one really satisfied me, and I was confused about what was next. The suggestions I received from family and friends only exacerbated the confusion. I didn't know where to turn for answers and so I started to pray for guidance.<br><br>After several weeks, I received three clear "messages" from what divine source I was not really sure—that answered my questions. The first stated, "You are a catalyst for discovery." The second said, "You will work in growth and development." The third came through loud and clear, "You have a gift for working with people."<br><br>I knew these three messages were the answers to my prayers, but I didn't know how to deploy them. These three "revelations" didn't point to an industry or provide me with a job description, so I was left trying to figure out what to do. I formulated a sentence:<br><br>"I am a catalytic agent who works with people in their growth and development."<br><br>From that moment on, the messages came to me on a regular basis. They led me to create my seminar, the Inner Negotiation/Self-Esteem Workshop. In addition to the messages, people also started coming to me—to learn how to find their own inner answers.<br><br>And so my coaching organization, MMS (Motivation Management Service) was launched in 1974, as well as a subsequent training program to teach other people how to do the same work I was doing.<br><br>One day, as I sat designing the training program for our MMS Coach Training, the Rules for Being Human came through me onto the paper. I thought, "I have been asking for these answers my whole life, and finally they have been delivered to me." The Rules answered the fundamental question I'd asked, "What is the purpose of life?"<br><br>In the last 37 years, the Rules for Being Human have circled the globe.<br><br>I then received a message to write a book about the Ten Rules, so they can be passed on to everyone who is looking for a template for living a happy life. Much to my delight, the book titled If Life Is a Game…These Are the Rules rose to #1 on the New York Times' best-seller list and sold over four million copies. Then it was translated into 40 languages and published around the globe. Life is full of wonderful surprises!<br><br>Here is an excerpt from Rule Two from the book: <b>You Will Be Presented with Lessons.</b><br><br><b>You Rule #2: You Will Be Presented with Lessons<br>from If Life Is a Game… These Are the Rules</b><br><br> <br>You are enrolled in a full-time informal school called "life." Each day in this school you will have the opportunity to learn lessons. You may like the lessons or hate them, but you have designed them as part of your curriculum.<br><br>Why are you here? What is your purpose? Humans have sought to discover the meaning of life for a very long time. What we and our ancestors have overlooked, however, in the course of this endless search, is that there is no one answer. The meaning of life is different for every individual.<br><br>Each person has his or her own purpose and distinct path, unique and separate from anyone else's. As you travel your life path, you will be presented with numerous lessons that you will need to learn in order to fulfil that purpose. The lessons you are presented with are specific to you; learning these lessons is the key to discovering and fulfilling the meaning and relevance of your own life.<br><br>Once you have learned the basic lessons taught to you by your own body, you are ready for a more advanced teacher: the universe. You will be presented with lessons in every circumstance that surfaces in your life. When you experience pain, you learn a lesson. When you feel joy, you learn a different lesson. For every action or event, there is an accompanying lesson that must be learned.<br><br>As you travel through your lifetime, you may encounter challenging lessons that others don't have to face, while others spend years struggling with challenges that you don't need to deal with. You may never know why you are blessed with a wonderful marriage, while your friends suffer through bitter arguments and painful divorces, just as you cannot be sure why you struggle financially while your peers enjoy abundance. The only thing you can count on for certain is that you will be presented with all the lessons that you specifically need to learn; whether you choose to learn them or not is entirely up to you.<br><br>The challenge of Rule Two, therefore, is to align yourself with your own unique path by learning your individual lessons. This is one of the most difficult challenges you will face in your lifetime, as sometimes your path will lead you into a life that is radically different from others. Don't compare your path to those around you and focus on the disparity between their lessons and yours. You need to remember that you will only be faced with lessons that you are capable of learning and are specific to your own growth.<br><br>If you are able to rise to this challenge, you can unravel the mystery of your purpose and actually live it. You cease being a victim of fate or circumstance and become empowered—life no longer just "happens to you." When you are working toward fulfilling your true purpose, you discover astonishing gifts within yourself that you may have never known you have. This process may not be easy, but the rewards are well worth the struggle.<br> <br>Enjoy the Ten Rules for Being Human, share them with others, use them to initiate conversations you have always wanted to have. Most of all, apply the Rules to your own life. Learn the lessons, listen to your messages, align with your spiritual DNA, and fulfil all your dreams.<br> <br>Be happy...have fun....enjoy life to the full.....<br> <br> <br>Yes, you can achieve all things in life by your attitude to be positive, you have the solution in you, so go forward and use it now!<br>Start with `Igniting` your success right now with the comprehensive book from Arima Publishing called `Create Your Own Success Story` - is a powerful inspirational book that helps you to be successful in business and in life. The book can be purchased be visiting www.cavendish-mr.org.uk - Amazon and bookshops world wide<br><br><br><b>About the Author Colin Thompson</b><br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br><br>Life game rules!<br> Tue, 05 May 2015 14:35:48 +0000 Choose your attitude - Teamwork http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/choose-attitude_ <font size="3">================<br><i>Choose your attitude...</i><br>================<br> <br>http://www.shareasale.com/image/fstr.jpg<br> <br>"<b>The key to success is to focus our conscious mind on things we desire, not things we fear."</b></font><br><br>— Brian Tracy: author and speaker<br> <br> <br>“Believe and act as if it were impossible to fail.” –Charles F. Kettering.<br><br>Finish strong is $10 today.<br><br>`<b>Finish Strong</b>` is a fantastic book filled with inspirational stories about others who have overcome adversity to achieve their goals, realize their dreams, and finish strong in their lives. It’s impossible to read this book and not be inspired. <br><br>But beyond the stories, living with a `Finish Strong`® attitude can help manifest greatness in your personal life no matter your background—student, parent, teacher, professional or athlete. Dedicating your life to finishing strong in all you do will take everything you pursue to the next level and beyond. It matters not who you are or what you do. What matters is the power of committing yourself to Finish Strong in all you choose to do.<br><br>After reading `Finish Strong` you will notice a kick-start in your life. You may find yourself at the end of the work day with one more thing that needs to get done…do you leave it, or do you choose to finish strong and complete the job? You may find yourself exhausted from the day and putting your children to bed…do you skip their bedtime story or do you finish strong and complete your nightly tradition? At the end of the day, when you lie your head on your pillow at night, regardless of what happened during the day, when you choose to finish strong, you will rest easily knowing that you did everything you could to make the day its best.<br><br>There is not a single person in the world who cannot benefit from adopting the Finish Strong mindset. Why don’t you start today by picking up a copy for yourself and someone else that needs inspiration? And listen/watch the movie below for inspiration.<br><br><br>Yes, you can achieve all things in life by your attitude to be positive, you have the solution in you, so go forward and use it now!<br><br>Start with `Igniting` your success right now with the comprehensive book from Arima Publishing called `Create Your Own Success Story` - is a powerful new inspirational book that helps you to be successful in business and in life. The book can be purchased be visiting <a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a> - Amazon and bookshops world wide<br><br><br><br>Have fun, learn heaps, and remember life is all about commitment, have the right attitude to make `your` own success in life with others!<br> <br>May all your success be fun and may all your fun be successful!<br> <br>" Your future depends on many things, but mostly yourself.”<br> <br>Yes, you can achieve all things in life by your attitude to be positive, you have the solution in you, so go forward and use it now!<br> <br>Together we can make a difference...<br>Have fun, learn heaps, and enjoy every step of your journey!<br><br>Life is fun, life is hard work, but just look at the success you will have in life.<br><br>View more info here:<br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.shareasale.com/r.cfm?b=148879&amp;u=295353&amp;m=17824&amp;urllink=&amp;afftrack=">http://www.shareasale.com/r.cfm?b=148879&amp;u=295353&amp;m=17824&amp;urllink=&amp;afftrack=</a><br><br><b>About the Author Colin Thompson</b><br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor. <br><br>--- --- ---<br>Written and submitted by:<br><br><b>Dr Colin Thompson</b><br>Managing Partner<br>Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589<br>Mobile: 07831 588310<br>Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802<br>email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk<br>Skype: colin.thompson384<br><br> <br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a><br> <br><b>The Cavendish Academy</b><br>http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/<br> Fri, 17 Apr 2015 09:53:56 +0000