With 188 delegates, PA will indeed be key...
Pennsylvania Primary- Hillary vs. Barack: The Google Factor
Updated April 16, 2008
Pennsylvania Primary- Hillary vs. Barack:
The Google Factor
Pennsylvania and Nationwide Analysis on the Democratic Candidates Internet Efforts
Polls show, such as the Rasmussen Reports, as can be seen here that Hillary has a lead going into the PA-Primary, as of today. That lead is down to single digits though, compared to months ago, which was a double-digit lead for Clinton. There is no doubt that Obama has his work cut-out for him in this large, important state and one of the last big primaries, besides N. Carolina a month later. Yet, we see that over the last 12-months, Barack has shown a very strong surge in the number of people searching for him (via Google), in Pennsylvania, about him. More exact, with the key-word, "Barack Obama." Here is the 12-month chart:
Hillary vs. Barack- Google Trends Report- 12 Month Chart - Click Here.
Above chart is from March 7th.
Here is a chart from March 15th.... Notice the changes.. in Hillary's favor:
Now, check this out- Google Trend Chart from March 26th- WOW, Obama is on the rise and Clinton heading down:
The April 22nd. Pennsylvania Primary offers 188 delegates up for grabs. It is not a winner take all, this Barrack needs to stay close- at least get closer than the polls show now. The Google figures, from a 12-month perspective, would seem to show he is heading the right away. Yet wait a moment, narrow down the time-frame to just 30-days and it looks even more interesting:
Hillary vs. Barack- Google Trends Report- 30-day Chart - Click Here.
This shows, well, not sure. Looks a little odd-ball and it should be noted that Google Trends (The new Google product that offers these charts) is in beta. But, on face-value, it would seems that they are closer in terms of whom is searching for them via Google on the 30-day chart than on a 12-month gauge. The big question of course is, what will the next 30-days bring? Keep an eye on this link and watch it wiggle and move.
Pew Research reports that 42% of young people (aged 18-29) use the Internet to make election choices. Barrack has certainly been depending on this age group and it will not be any different in the remaining states, especially in PA.
Now, let's switch to Nation-wide Internet Indicators, as they apply to all the remaining primary states and of course PA as well:
Nationwide- the Internet Indicators
Digg.com is a social networking site that offers members to share, rank and comment on news articles and web links in general. It has a strong community and they have a special "Digg the Candidates" section (Click on Image above to visit their site) . The current winner on the Democratic side is hands down Barack Obama with 13,516 "friends." Hillary Clinton is in dead-last with only 1,693 friends.
We have looked before at Hillary's and Barack's pages on Facebook.com. Short and simple, here are the scores as of now there:
http://www.facebook.com/hillaryclinton = 128,568 supporters
http://www.facebook.com/barackobama = 667,072 supporters
This site has less professionals then Facebook.com, but many more users in general. The "friends" standing there currently is:
Obama's MySpace Page = 313,493 "friends"
Clinton's MySpace Page = 188,888 "friends"
WWW Campaign Sites:
Quantcast.com offers a wide variety of site analytical tools. Let's first see how the two candidates site's match up, in terms of ranking (whose is more popular):
barackobama.com (rank 687 )
hillaryclinton.com (rank 1,826 )
(Ranking note: No.1 is the best)
Hillary's site is of course getting 125% over the internet average of woman visitors. Barack scores basically exactly the same! That is interesting, very interesting. There are some very big surprises in the "Ethnicity" category. It seems, naturally, Obama is getting 350% of the internet average of African Americans. Yet, for all other races, he never really gets close to the 100%, accept for the "other" category. Hillary Clinton's Ethnicity stats for her web page show that she is pulling in more races, across the board and getting close to the internet 100% average on most all main groups. This says something- does it mean Hillary has a broader appeal?
Compare the Demographics of their Web Page Visitors Here:
Top Keywords Driving Traffic to:
1. barack obama
TOTAL: 2,287 keywords leading in traffic
Top Keywords Driving Traffic to:
1. hillary clinton
2. hilary clinton
TOTAL: 1,097 keywords leading in traffic
This tells me that more are looking into a variety of subjects relating to Barack Obama. Could also mean that his site is better optimized for search engines or a combination of both.
Link Ins- who is linking into their sites
A very important indicator is that of "link popularity." When we check that, we see that www.barackobama.com gets almost 300,000 links! hillaryclinton.com pulls in way less, only 138,460 , to be exact. fifty percent less. That says something. (You want many people linking to your site- it is that simple.)
Google's rating system for the popularity of one's web page-
www.hillaryclinton.com = Google PageRank of 6
www.barackobama.com = Google PageRank of 7
*The higher the ranking (out of 10) the better.
Hillary's web server appears to be running:
Server Type: Microsoft-IIS/6.0
Barack's server spins with:
Server Type: PWS/1.2.25 (Apache)
Obama seems to have the better technology, as far as web people are concerned. Here is a good Slashdot (Respected technical resource.) article and series of user comments on the technology in use by the candidates on their web servers. Interesting:
Online Election tools
There is a lot of info on the web and that includes many tools to help us, the voters, in better understanding the candidates and what they stand for. Here is a listing of a few good ones. http://www.10questions.com/ is a nice series of 10-questions in video form from site visitors and you can also vote which candidate gives the best answers. http://www.gotoquiz.com/candidates/2008-quiz.html is a quiz that will show you who best fits your vote, based on your views. This AI (artificial intelligence) based site is cool- you ask the questions and you get a video reply from the candidate, based on debate footage: http://www.askthecandidates2008.com/
Well, honestly, it looks tough for Clinton. But one thing is for sure. Hillary has some interesting positives going for her, and the fact that although she gets less web-hits, she is drawing a broader base of people to her campaign, at least at this late stage. Barack is getting more hits and more Google searches and for sure has the younger vote tied up. Yet, his key will be seeing the ethnicity of his web page demographics expanding into many other groups. It is a close call, just like the race itself! But, when looking at the math of it all, it appears Hillary's going to have to really put on the gas. She has to, according to this article, win by 20+ points in all remaining primaries. See:
Update: Hillary earns 4 million online in just a few days. See: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080306/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_money
Update March 15th- Hillary's Google Searches improving, Barack getting less:
Update March 29th- Looks like Obama is the nominee, unless Clinton can pull off a major victory in PA- new article and analysis here:
Obama vs Clinton- Social Bookmarking Sites
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