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Keystone is key- Barack vs Hillary Internet Analysis

March 5, 2008

Keystone is key- Barack vs Hillary Internet Analysis
Home Stretch- The Google Effect






As the title would suggest, Pennsylvania will now be very important for Obama and Clinton, yet the "Google Effect" or "Web Indicators" are just as important, if not the key to the keystone state and beyond.

Polls abound, we can see that in effect Barack has the advantage, as of today, based on the mainstream, nationwide polls RealClearPolitics Poll chart (a combined average of several polls such as the USA Today/Gallup, Newsweek, Gallup Tracking, etc.) shows us. The chart on that link shows a strong surge upward for Obama. Those who follow Elliott Wave Theory would see this as a "buy opportunity" perhaps for Obama. Or, has he reached his peak, especially after TX and OH?


The trend would show us that Barack Obama appears to have a strong wave count going up (4 out of 5) and that he is perhaps yet to go even higher, while in effect Hillary has been dropping, a bit, but still off her lows. Many main stream sources, such as The Economist, are starting to call Barack the front-runner. (see Economist Article here from Feb 14th.) What other analysis can we thus look at, other than this momentum? As many have seen the "internet indicators" have been key in this election and relatively accurate in showing us the progress of the Democrats in this nomination process for the office of president of the United States of America. We have a few interesting ones below to look at.


Google Trends
Comparing Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama


Who is getting searched for more- Hillary or Barack?
Here we can see the Google Trends Chart here:
http://www.google.com/trends_Hillary_vs_Barack

Via this chart we see a clear advantage for Barack Obama, when trending over all years. Now, if we tighten up this comparison a bit to be only for the last year or 30-days, we see something even more interesting:

Obama vs. Clinton on Google Searches-
Google Trends - 1 Year Chart



Google Trends - 1 Month (30 day) Chart

Although it is clearly a lead for Obama with this indicator- the last 30 days shows _potential_ convergence of the graph lines- albeit it only perhaps, as Barack still has the lead in this key indicator and some major victories to help him keep soaring. Keep in mind, some 70% of all web searches done on the internet go through Google.com. This is no small amount of hits, that is for sure.

So what about web hits, you know, unique visitors to their sites? This is obviously key, akin to a virtual who is stopping by your stand at a trade show or convention. As we have seen before, Obama's web page is receiving way more visitors than Clinton's:


Unique Web Visitors


Another interesting piece if information on the above link (click on the image) is which keywords or at least the number of key words (search terms) are leading visitors to their respective web pages:

Top Keywords Driving Traffic to:
www.barackobama.com

Top Two:
1. barack obama
2. obama
3.- 50. Top 50 Key Words for barackobama.com


TOTAL: 2,287 keywords leading in traffic

Top Keywords Driving Traffic to:
www.hillaryclinton.com

Top Two:
1. hillary clinton
2. hilary clinton

3.- 50. Top 50 Key Words for hillaryclinton.com

TOTAL: 1,097 keywords leading in traffic

This tells me that more are looking into a variety of subjects relating to Barack. Could also just mean that his web site is better optimized for search engines. That may be a bit at work here, yet I doubt it, as both look professional, well run and filled with unique content. Obama's "my.barackobama" section on his page is a great addition and may be leading in more traffic through creating a social network, of sorts, even allowing users to make their own blogs. His RSS feeds also pump out a lot of info.


Wait- it is the "Link Popularity"
There are great tools out on the net to check for many technical aspects of a web page. An important indicator is that of "link popularity." Using it, we can see that www.barackobama.com gets almost 300,000 links! hillaryclinton.com pulls in much less, only 138,460, to be exact. Half as many other people's sites are linking into Clinton's. That says something.

Google PageRank:
Google's rating system for the popularity of one's web page-
www.hillaryclinton.com = Google PageRank of 6
www.barackobama.com = Google PageRank of 7
*The higher the ranking (out of 10) the better.

Hillary's site appears to be running:
Server Type: Microsoft-IIS/6.0

Barack's looks like it is:
Server Type: PWS/1.2.25 (Apache)

Obama seems to have the better technology, as far as web people are concerned. Here is a great Slashdot (well respected technical resource) article and series of user comments on the technology used by the candidates on their web servers. Sort of interesting:
http://politics.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/02/02/1641211

Hillary Clinton has a challenge. Her technology seems less and the results on the web have certainly been pulling up short. Naturally there are many reasons for this, one of them called politics. Politics is what we will have between now and the party nominations, you can be sure of that. However those using the internet and technology to it's fullest will have an edge- perhaps the key to the keystone state. It is clear however that Hillary made strong gains in Texas and Ohio and the positive effect on this will have to be see the coming days and weeks, leading up to Pennsylvania. Currently, the polls show her having about a 10-point lead in PA. This is indeed positive for Clinton.

One last note...

Online tools - Helping you decide...
Take one of the many online quiz's to help see whom you *should* vote for, based on how you answer various questions on the main issues. One such tool is http://glassbooth.org. It is a series of 20, easy topics which you rate as important, not important or in-different. Then, after that, you take their online quiz. Turns out, "Ron Paul shares a 65% similarity with your beliefs." Neat. (That is basically my candidate at this stage- sorry Obama Mammas.) The tools are there, online, so use them, share them and social network your way to November 5th and election day 2008!

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Comments on this item:

Data Eye
11-10-2011 06:20:46
Looks like the US government is catching onto this sort of analysis...

"Now social scientists are trying to mine the vast resources of the Internet — Web searches and Twitter messages, Facebook and blog posts, the digital location trails generated by billions of cellphones — to do the same thing. " (predict the future)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/11/science/11predict.html?_r=3&src=dayp

Now, mind you, this is not so much predicting the future, as it is a probability tool. RON PAUL was off the charts when you did similar above in 2008, but yet still, he lost big in the election. Why? Well, that is another study all together.
 


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