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Super Tuesday- The Republican Web Battle!

January 29, 2008

Super Tuesday Analysis -
The Republican Web Battle
Google Trend & Web Hits Reports


We have presented in the past articles about the use of the world wide web for researching and perhaps even picking a candidate as nominee for the republican party candidate for president. Thus it may have merit in providing us a indicator of what people may be researching or better said, whom they _may_ choose come primary day. On the Democratic side this web indicator pointed at a big win for Obama in SC and it happened- where he got 50% of the young vote. Ron Paul is leading in many areas, however is that resulting in votes? Till now not, thus some other, perhaps many other variables must be considered. Take the below for what it is worth, a web snap-shot and see what trends you can perhaps see.

WEB SITE HIT COMPARISON (Number of Visitors)
Republican Nominee Candidates






GOOGLE TRENDS REPORT (Searches)
United States (all) Republicans Republicans Google Search Race - USA


Alabama (primary) Not Enough Data Present
Alaska (caucus) Not Enough Data Present
Arizona (presidential preference election) Google Searches Chart for Arizona
Arkansas (primary) Not Enough Data Present
California (primary) Google Searches Chart for California
Colorado (caucus) Google Searches Chart for Colorado
Connecticut (primary) Google Searches Chart for Connecticut
Delaware (primary) Not Enough Data Present
Georgia (primary) Google Searches Chart for Georgia
Illinois (presidential preference primary) Google Searches Chart for Illinois
Massachusetts (primary) Google Searches Chart for Massachusetts
Minnesota (caucus) Google Searches Chart for Minnesota
Missouri (primary) Google Searches Chart for Missouri
Montana (invited caucus) Not Enough Data Present
New Jersey (primary) Google Searches Chart for New Jersey
New York (primary) Google Searches Chart for New York
North Dakota (caucus) Not Enough Data Present
Oklahoma (primary) Google Searches Chart for Oklahoma
Tennessee (primary) Google Searches Chart for Tennessee
Utah (primary) Not Enough Data Present
West Virginia (convention) Not Enough Data Present


Conclusions
Based on the above, you would say that Ron Paul should be right up there in the race. There have been allegations that some have tricked their computer to show a different IP and vote numerous times on some of the online polls that Dr. Paul has won. However, then you would see him way ahead in a certain state and behind in others. The fact is, Ron Paul leads just about every state and with often huge numbers. Sort of surprising, for you would figure not many would know Romney, for example and would want to search for his views on the internet. However it is clear that McCain, Romney, Huckabee and others get all of the MSM (Main stream media) press and that still is the the most important medium for the overall population.

With 72% of US citizens online, that amounts to quite a potential. Pewresearch.org says that 25% of Americans use the world wide web to make "choices" about the election. An even higher 42% of young adults, which is 18-29 year olds, are using it in the same way. Thus, we can see that Ron Paul may be getting more of the "young" vote. This will help him. (If that age group can come out in mass and make the difference.)

John McCain and Mike Huckabee have some strong pockets of people searching for them on Google. Yet at the end of the day, it is still Ron Paul on top- at least with regards to the web battle.

Super Tuesday is really close and then we will know. Till then, keep an eye on these stats and most importantly enjoy.


EXTRA CHART - All Presidential Candidates (Google Trends) Rep. and Dem:
(Click on Graphic for Link to Google Trends Report)




On a lighter note: Does this mean that Google Trends predicts the New York Giants will win the Super Bowl (Wow, look at that spike up):
Giants vs. Patriots - Google Trends Chart




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