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Monetary Policy - Global Economics Weekly

Global Economics Weekly Brief

Monetary Policy



A global “Who’s Who” descended on Davos this week for the World Economic Forum, but all the attention was on the ECB in Frankfurt. After all the waiting, Quantitative Easing arrived in the Euro zone.


And across the Channel, the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee took two steps away from raising rates. European easing continues. The Euro zone are in very deep trouble! Also, their action will impact globally!


The wait is over. The European Central Bank forged enough agreement to go ahead with quantitative easing. This adds government bonds to the ECB’s growing list of investments and takes its monthly expenditure up to €60bn. But in the crazy world of QE this isn't a lot. The Bank of England spent £375bn on its QE program, or 22% of GDP. One year of the ECB's version will be a little over 7% of Euro Area GDP. That's one reason why it will be going until at least September 2016. The ECB have agreed to print £900 billion if so required! Globally trouble is gathering speed!

A lucky general? Has Mario Draghi taken action just as the economy was taking a turn for the better? There’s tentative evidence of that in the flash results of the Purchasing Managers Index. Services and manufacturing activity both edged-up. Firms received a modest boost to new business and their margins are benefitting from lower energy costs. But anaemic is too strong a description of job growth and there’s no sign of inflation. Conditions might be better but they’re not good. There is trouble in the air! `Big Time`!

Keep on fallin! The UK unemployment rate fell to 5.8%. And there was more good news as the number of people long-term unemployed fell by 53k. What remained roughly the same were the employment rate (73%), the prevalence of self employment (14.7% of total employment) and the average number of hours we work in a week (32 hours and 12 minutes if you want to keep score). Given all this good news, some people might be wondering why two members of the MPC turned away from wanting to raise rates. Clearly, the answer is to be found elsewhere. Too many people are employed on `zero` hours contracts and part time so the picture is still `grey`!

Squeeze on the ease. There was good news on the UK’s wages front. Regular pay grew by 1.8%y/y in the three months to November, the fastest pace since September 2012. Coupled with the fall in inflation, it means real wages have been growing for the first time since before the financial crisis. But it's still a low figure on an historical basis. Between 2001 and 2008 wage growth averaged 4%y/y. So there's plenty of room for improvement!

Whitewash. Since August two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members had been voting for a rate rise. That changed in January. The plummeting oil price lowered inflation and convinced the whole Committee that rates should stay at 0.5%. The Bank of England now expects inflation to reach zero in March this year, meaning a 50:50 chance of the UK seeing deflation. But it also expects lower oil prices, higher incomes and falling mortgage rates to boost growth. More challenges ahead!

Same again. The UK government looks set to borrow as much in this financial year as it did last. The reason is simple - while receipts grew by £9.7bn compared with the same period last financial year, current and investment spending grew by a combined £12.2bn. With the public sector now indebted to the tune of 81% of national income, the Budget is unlikely to be filled with many pre-election giveaways. The UK still owe £1.5 trillion so the picture is not good! Also, borrowing is still increasing rapidly!

Spend it like Beckham. A season of solid retail sales growth showed little sign of slowing in December. The quantity bought in shops and online rose by 2.3% in the three months leading up to Christmas period. That's the fastest since April 2002. Although December's rise was a slightly subdued 0.4%, this simply reflects a strong November spend due to Black Friday. It also shows that sales events tend to change the moment we decide spend. Lastly, these figures hint that UK economic growth, or at least the two thirds of it generally known as consumer spending, ended 2014 in pretty fine fettle. Domestic debt is the highest on record, so when/how will this be paid back?

Doubts. China's economy grew by 7.3%y/y in Q4 2014, unchanged from the previous quarter. For the year as a whole growth was 7.4%, the slowest since 1990. But with each passing quarter the doubts about the reliability of China's GDP figures grow. The outturn is always remarkably close to the forecast figure. Real estate investment, crucial to the country's growth, is experiencing its weakest period since the financial crisis. Meanwhile the manufacturing PMI continues to point to weakness in domestic demand. China's economy is likely slowing more than the GDP figures suggest!

Back on the agenda. For more than two years it had been pretty quiet on the euro crisis front. Save for Cyprus in 2013 and last year’s Portuguese bank failure, policy makers had kept the sovereign debt problem/issue at bay. But solving the underlying problems/issues will be a multi-year project involving fiscal and political union, banking union and economic reform. Syriza’s victory in Greece’s election yesterday returns the euro’s inherent fragilities to centre stage. More challenges ahead for the Euro zone countries and how will they pay back their borrowings? Just look at the very high debt levels in the Euro zone!

About the Author Colin Thompson

Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor.

--- --- ---
Written and submitted by:

Dr Colin Thompson
Managing Partner
Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589
Mobile: 07831 588310
Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802
email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk
Skype: colin.thompson384


http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk

The Cavendish Academy
http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/
--- --- ---

Monetary Policy - Global Economics Weekly

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