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IMF Slashes - Global Economics Weekly

Global Economics Weekly Brief

IMF Slashes

The International Monetary Fund’s verdict on the world economy is keenly anticipated as a global health-check, even if its forecasting record is no better than anyone else’s.



The forecasts are accompanied by advice, which this time focused on boosting infrastructure investment and urging the European Central Bank to do more. Have the IMF got it right? Check their history and you will be surprised! The world is in deep trouble from several areas with many issues. History repeating itself again, again and again!


Solid. The IMF expects the UK to grow by 2.7% in 2015, down from more than 3% this year, but still decent. Among the major economies, only the US is expected to grow faster. The IMF says UK growth has become more balanced – both consumption and business investment are chipping-in – and puts that down to improving credit and financial market conditions and healthy corporate balance sheets. It reckons interest rates will start rising in the first half of next year. How have the IMF built into their forecast the present issues globally that will impact on the future? Do we believe the IMF? Read history and this will tell you the future - repeat/repeat!

Envious. The IMF’s forecasts for the euro area make for grim reading. It says, “the crisis legacy brakes will ease only slowly in the euro area.” That’s IMF-speak for very slow growth for some time to come. It estimates that there is around a one-in-three chance that there will be outright deflation in the region in the next year and an even higher probability of a return to recession. Both would make dealing with heavy debt burdens harder still. The case for more trenchant action by the European Central Bank grows by the day. Well, the IMF are right about the Euro zone countries!

The age of austerity. The IMF’s projections for government debt and deficits do not make for encouraging reading either. The world's advanced economies are expected to run deficits of 3.9% and 3.1% of GDP this year and next. That shortfall of UK taxes relative to UK government expenditure is lower than its worst point of 9% in 2009, but on current plans there'll still be a third of the work still to go even six years after the crisis. Running deficits year after year means debts build up, in the UK's case to an expected 85% of GDP in 2015. On the IMF's calculations this will put the UK 11% points higher than the advanced economy average. Back in 2008 the UK were comfortably below average. Restoring that situation will extend the age of austerity even further. The world is running up massive debts, who will pay in the future? Read history for the answer!

Strong growth in UK manufacturing. We get the first estimate of Q3 GDP at the end of next week, but the industrial output data for August gave us some clues of what to expect. Overall production was 2.5% higher than at the same point last year, a good performance, but slower than the 3.4% managed by the services sector in the 12 months to July. Manufacturing is the star performer with output up 3.9% in the last year, but some other areas of industry have struggled. Oil & gas extraction has shrunk by 7% in the last year and is now half its 2007 size. Still more room to get back to 2007 levels!

Slowdown. The UK housing market is expected to cool somewhat, although prices are still expected to grow. According to the latest RICS survey, surveyors expect prices to be around 2% higher in a year's time, well below this year’s growth. Expectations for London are that prices will start to fall within the next 12 months - in this respect, the capital is unique among its regional peers. This is mainly due to a sharp fall in the amount of new buyer enquiries. But all is not lost - demand for housing in the capital remains robust. Tenant demand in London is rising faster than anywhere else in the UK. Over priced houses with many overseas buyers for long term investment keeps the house prices very high!

Europe worries America... It’s more than its fate at the hands of Europe’s golfers that’s making the US uncomfortable. Minutes of last month’s Fed meeting confirmed that it expects moderate growth to continue. But it’s worried about risks that might visit US shores from overseas. At the moment the biggest risk appears to be the Euro zone's slide towards recession. Such a move would delay the Fed’s timetable for tightening and leaves them in no rush to raise rates now. China now the present number one world economy! The US borrowing is $17 trillion and rapidly growing!

...and the MPC. If the US is worried about the Euro zone outlook then the UK has even more cause to be. The UK’s Monetary Policy Committee kept rates on hold last week and we’ll have to wait till next week to see what was discussed, but the Euro zone's deteriorating outlook will have undoubtedly been an important topic. At the last meeting two members thought the time was right to start raising rates, but they will have had a hard job convincing their fellow committee members of the need to tighten policy as others, including the Chancellor and the IMF, queue up to warn of European recession. If UK interest rates rise, then there will be big trouble! The impact will see social unrest and many other reactions, like strikes again and again!

Happy birthday! Help to Buy's mortgage guarantee scheme celebrated its first birthday in style. First, the Bank of England gave it a clean bill of health, saying that the scheme was not a significant threat to financial stability. Second - there is ample evidence that the scheme has done what it said on the tin. It has helped 18.5k households buy their first home, compared to the 30k purchases thus far enabled by the older equity loan scheme. 79% of purchases were by first time buyers. And the majority (74%) have been outside of London and the South of England. For a policy born amidst a storm of strong opinions, that’s a good first year.

The future holds;

* Risk Factors to Global Growth

* US end QE ( printing money)

* Euro zone stagnation and deflation


* Slow pace of banking reform in Euro zone


* Standoff with Russia over Ukraine


* Rise in UK bank rate


* Asian growth off the boil


* Turmoil in the Middle East


Global banks being `fined` hundreds of millions of their countries currency for reckless behaviour/market interest rate rigging/cheating the taxpayer/product and service cheating/many other reasons that are too many to illustrate.

Fears grow of another economic cataclysm - The world in turmoil again!
About the Author Colin Thompson

Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor.

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Written and submitted by:

Dr Colin Thompson
Managing Partner
Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589
Mobile: 07831 588310
Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802
email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk
Skype: colin.thompson384


http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk

The Cavendish Academy
http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/
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16-09-2016 20:56:39
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16-09-2016 20:56:51
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