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Growth - Global Economics Weekly

Growth

Global Economics Weekly Brief


While most developed economies continue to grow, there are signs that the pace of expanding activity has stabilised. The majority of purchasing managers in the UK still report rising orders, it’s just their voices are less dominant than they were.



Even the housing market may have paused for breath. A breather is no bad thing and there's no indication there's more to it than that. There is more concern that consumer prices could start to fall in the eurozone. And so the spectre of Japan's deflationary struggles looms ever larger across the continent. The odds that eurozone policymakers will follow Japan (and the UK and US) and start QE have just narrowed. The future is full of challenges and opportunity and the `money` people will make more money and the gap between the rich and poor will widen!
Pausing for breath. Few doubt that the UK housing market has recovered. According to the Nationwide House Price Index, prices have risen each month since for the start of 2013 and the annual rise is running at 9.5% nationally and 18% in London and Manchester. Yet momentum may be easing. The number of mortgage approvals fell in February, while prices fell in March, according to the Halifax House Price Index. However, monthly movements need to be viewed with caution and the index shows the annual rate of increase was 8.7%. Nonetheless, members of the Financial Policy Committee will welcome a pause in momentum as they have promised to remain vigilant for signs of overheating in the housing market. More foreign buyers are in the housing market especially from China whereby they are buying UK property at about 30% above market value! Why, because of greedy house builders and selling agents!

Onward. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) suggests the pace of UK business activity also eased a little in March. The manufacturing PMI fell to 55.3, from 56.2 in February and the services equivalent was down to 57.6, from 58.2. The readings still indicate output was expanding, and at a decent clip, it just wasn’t accelerating. Managers remain optimistic about the outlook for business, profits, employment and spending. So there’s few signs that the UK’s economic recovery will stall anytime soon!

Building the recovery. A revived economy and housing market is supporting construction. Although the sector’s PMI reading remained virtually unchanged at 62.5 in March, that’s a high reading. So building activity is likely to be expanding rapidly. Residential property is a key element in this expansion. But commercial construction also rose. And like their manufacturing and service sector peers, construction firms remain confident about prospects over the coming year. The housing boom will unfortunately burst again due to pure greed!

Low and falling. Inflation in the eurozone dropped to 0.5%y/y in March, down from an already anemic 0.7%y/y in February. With unemployment across the single currency area remaining stubbornly high at 11.9% and bank lending continuing to contract, it’s hardly surprising that economic output is also subdued. More unemployment on its way unfortunately!

Just say no. President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi claimed the Governing Council is unanimously committed in the fight against low inflation. It’s not hard to see why. The longer they wait the more entrenched the belief that inflation will stay low becomes. The ECB discussed deploying an “arsenal” of unconventional policy instruments, jargon for measures to boost the money supply, lending and, hopefully, growth. There’s a number of options but the possibility of the ECB engaging in QE, or purchasing assets with newly created money, obviously caught the most attention. The Euro is still in trouble and the European market is stagnating!

US labour market: steady as she goes. The US economy added 192k jobs in March, slightly higher than the 183k averaged over the past 12 months, and the sort of good-but-not-great growth that will bring the unemployment rate down gradually. The unemployment rate was 6.7% in March, the same as in February, but down from 7.5% a year ago. The US Federal Reserve had previously intimated it would consider raising rates when unemployment fell to 6.5%, but has since switched its policy of forward guidance to a broader, more qualitative (read flexible) set of economic conditions. Watch very closely the US economy!

A timely fillip. Since the turn of the year US data have painted a mixed picture of performance. The Fed, among many, hasn't been sure whether bad weather was distorting matters or whether growth might have slowed. According to purchasing managers, growth accelerated in March. The spurt was especially strong in services, where the Purchasing Managers Index rose 1.5m/m to 53.1. In manufacturing the reading advanced 0.5 to 53.7. A stronger flow of new orders in both sectors provides confidence that last month’s improvement will endure!

National Debt Up as UK Sinks deeper in to the Red! The UK government borrowed nearly £14 million `every hour` last month plunging Britain ever deeper into the red. The UK national debt hit £1.25 trillion or 74% of national income and around £50,000 for every household in the country. The national debt is rapidly increasing month-on-month, when will it stop?

* Europe as a very serious issue with rapid unemployment especially with the youth in `every` country that impacts daily!

European Youth Unemployment = 24% and rising rapidly

UK Youth Unemployment = 20% and rising rapidly

400,000 Graduates came on to the market last year in Europe

960,000 = Under 25`s are unemployed in the UK

Only one in ten school leaves takes up an apprenticeship in the UK

European Youth Unemployment to rise by another 10% + over the next 10 years

85 Richest People have Half of World`s Wealth! Wealthiest `85 people` have as much as poorest `3.5 billion people` globally! The 85 richest people on the planet have accumulated as much wealth between them as half of the world`s population, political and financial leaders have been warned ahead of their annual gathering in the Swiss resort of Davos. Their wealth is estimated as $18.5 trillion cash with investments in companies hidden away in tax havens around the world. The power of these 85 people on the world leaders is staggering! While 70% of people globally live in countries where the gap between rich and poor has grown rapidly over the last few years. Where will it end? What do you believe will happen globally because of the wider gap of the poor becoming more poor and the rich getting richer?


Five of Six Economic Recovery Indicators Retreat
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/economic-recovery-indicators-retreat-02-2014


Watch 2014 globally very closely!

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY - Institute for Fiscal Studies - click on the connection on the left.

* `10-Step Double-Dip Recession Survival Guide` - click on the connection below for comprehensive information.
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/double-dip-recession-survival-guide

Global Economic Crisis

Colin Thompson
DDL: + 44 (0) 121 244 0306

Mobile: 07831 588310

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email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk

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Growth!?!

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