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Greece - Global Economics Weekly

Greece Continues to Weigh

Global Economics Weekly Brief


Valentine’s Day failed to soften the hearts of some the northern Eurozone members, led by Germany. Last week they appeared to have second thoughts over making an 130 billion euro commitment to Greece. Indeed, the idea of letting Greece default messily was gaining momentum as the week wore on.


The main reason is that with a Greek election due in April 2012 and the opposition leading the opinion polls, they fear that a different government will renege on the agreements around austerity and reform. But perhaps it’s also to do with the belief that the Eurozone banking system is now strong enough to survive a Greek default. This seems a high risk strategy. Fortunately, finance ministers may be having second thoughts. As the weekend progressed the bailout option edged closer. Will Greece repay the loan, probably not!

Bank of England sees a jagged UK recovery. The Bank of England released its closely watched quarterly inflation report last week. They expect the economy to ‘zig-zag’ in and out of growth this year and there are plenty of risks on this already difficult road. The better news is that inflation is expected to fall in 2012 to just shy of the 2% target. Despite having just announced another dose of quantitative easing, the door remains open to a further round if the Bank of England deems it necessary. This is particularly likely if any of the ‘zig-zags’ turns out to be a sharp lurch downwards.

Number of UK unemployed creeps higher.
Unemployment will be a key area of concern for the Bank of England. Although the UK jobless rate held steady at 8.4% in December, the number of unemployed rose by 48,000 to 2.67 million. This is the highest level since 1995. Furthermore, the number of long-term unemployed (those out of work for more than two years) rose sharply over the course of 2011 and youth unemployment remains over 20%. These worrying trends could get worse before they get better in an environment of very weak economic growth and ongoing government spending cuts. More people are starting their own business to try and beat the recession.

UK retail sales defy expectations - again.
Shoppers, on the other hand, will give the Bank of England some hope. Retail sales made a solid start to the year, growing by 0.9% m/m in January. The y/y growth rate stood at 4.4%, though more than half of that growth came from price increases. But even if we strip out inflation, growth in real terms of 2.0% y/y is impressive given the headwinds facing consumers. In keeping with recent months, small retailers came out on top, with sales growing twice as quickly as for large retailers. More buying on credit again, where will it end?

Eurozone economy lurches towards recession (We believe the recession is already here!). Eurozone GDP contracted by 0.3% between Q3 and Q4 2011 as the debt crisis took its toll on the single market. Weakness was broad based with Spain, Italy, and even Germany recording negative growth rates over the quarter. Indeed, only France out of the 17 member states was able to achieve even moderate growth at 0.2%. While recent data has improved 2012 looks set to be a recessionary year for the Eurozone, particularly for those countries bearing the brunt of aggressive austerity. The Greek economy remains the worst casualty, with GDP down by 6.8%y/y over 2011 and an alarming 16.3% since the current crisis began. Europe needs a new strategy to survive with skilled and experienced people in charge!

Better news for US private consumption.
US politicians reached agreement on extending existing payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits through to the end of 2012. These had been due to expire at the end of February which would have hit the wallets of US shoppers and exerted a significant drag on growth. Consumers also got some relief from a slight retreat in the rate of inflation, similar to what UK consumers have begun to experience in recent months. Prices rose 2.9% y/y in January – the smallest rise in prices since March 2011. To round things off, Americans filed the fewest claims for jobless benefits in the week to 11 February since 2008, adding to evidence of a steadily improving labour market. Will there be more unemployment in the future, unfortunately yes!

Improving US data keeps prospects for more quantitative easing (QE) finely balanced. Minutes of January’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – the Monetary Policy Committee of the US – underlined the difference of opinion amongst members on the right direction for monetary policy. We already knew some see rate rises this year as warranted while others think 2016 as more appropriate. But it seems squabbles aren't confined to just the rate decision. "A few" members expect more QE this year, whilst "a number" think it only appropriate if the outlook deteriorates. So it is a case of wait and see for now, but a messy turn of events in Europe would make another round of asset purchases very likely.

China continues to ease monetary policy.
China cut the amount of money banks must set aside as it continues to gradually ease monetary policy in response to slower domestic and external demand. 2012 will likely see further easing. China do have the same issues as the rest of the world, inflation!

Click on each header below for powerful source information

RBS and Lloyds set to reveal losses
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9092244/RBS-and-Lloyds-set-to-reveal-big-losses.html
Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland are expected to unveil combined losses of more than £4bn when they publish annual results this week. So, why are they paying out millions in bonuses?

Treasury bullish over loan scheme despite HSBC doubts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9092000/Treasury-bullish-over-loan-scheme-despite-HSBC-doubts.html
The Treasury is still hopeful it will reach an agreement with UK banks on its planned £20bn credit-easing scheme, despite reservations raised by HSBC.

Bank fears bail-out protection won't be used
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9091887/Bank-of-England-fears-bail-out-protection-wont-be-used.html
Bank of England officials are growing increasingly sceptical about how effective a key regulatory reform to protect taxpayers from another bail-out would be in the event of a future banking crisis.

Insolvent companies face trading uncertainty

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9091995/Insolvent-companies-face-trading-uncertainty.html
Confusion over the payment priorities of administrators of collapsed businesses is resulting in job losses and company liquidations, insolvency practitioners have warned.

Britain still leads critical financial reform talks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9091829/Britain-still-leads-critical-financial-reform-talks.html
Readers could be forgiven for thinking financial services reform has, in 2012, focused on little other than bonuses or uncertainty in the eurozone. And, judging by a quick glance at the headlines, they would be right.

French get tough on bank bail-outs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9092004/French-get-tough-on-bank-bail-outs.html
Any French bank that is bailed-out by taxpayers will be part-nationalised and forced to lend to businesses and households, the Socialist party has promised if it wins the forthcoming election as expected.


New Eurozone fears as banks continue to stash more cash at the highest level recorded. The banks know what is probably going to happen!

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Greece - Global Economics Weekly

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