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Global Economics Weekly Brief - US and UK

Global Economics Weekly Brief

US and UK Quarter 1 Economics...

The fortunes of the US and UK economies often appear united. So it proved in Q1 when activity in both slowed by more than expected.

For the US this softness can be reasonably attributed to yet another severe east-coast winter. That’s not the case for the UK. Nonetheless, output in both economies should accelerate in the current quarter. More challenges ahead globally!....

Slow down. The UK economy expanded by a decidedly lacklustre 0.3% in Q1 this year. That’s half the rate recorded in Q4 2014 and unexpectedly brings to an end the UK’s run of above-trend growth. Services did best, growing by 0.5%, whilst manufacturing managed just 0.1% and construction shrank for the second consecutive quarter. Further evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing growth was provided by the sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for March, which showed a sizeable fall from 54 to 51.9. What is clear is that an extra 248,000 workers, about 0.8% of the workforce, helped generate economic growth of 0.3%. Unless the final figure ends up closer to 1%, which is unlikely, then productivity almost certainly fell, again. The UK is slowing down like the rest of the world!.....

Up close and personal in the UK. The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase fell slightly in March. The figures suggest that house price inflation will continue to soften in the coming months. That’s no bad thing. Personal credit growth continued apace in March though, up by £1.2bn compared with February. It seems consumers are finding their mojo and wanting to borrow. This in turn is helping the high street. People are waiting until after the General Election to see what government party is in power!...

Seasonal affective disorder. US GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1. On the face of it, that's cause for concern. But the story is more nuanced. Consumption grew by 1.9%, not a sign of an economy in trouble. Investment was down. But the biggest drag was the 7% fall in exports. For a few years now US performance in Q1 has been surprisingly weak. It's possible that the seasonal adjustments made to the raw numbers aren't doing their job well enough, pushing down reported growth. All this said, the pace of US growth looks to have slowed in recent months!...

No change in the US. With growth slowing and no sign of inflationary pressure on the horizon the Fed likely spent little time debating the merits of raising interest rates at its meeting last week. Kremlinologists parsed its statement for signs of when that will happen and markets reckon its December meeting will see the first move. On one thing the Fed remains clear: even when that day has been and gone, rates could continue to remain low for a considerable time. More challenges ahead yet again!...

Easy does it. US house prices rose by 4.2% y/y in February according to Case-Shiller. The rate of inflation has been moderating for over a year now. That’s welcome. Prices that rise at a pace closer to income growth are more sustainable than the double-digit rises of early 2014. Low interest rates, rising employment and generally decent consumer confidence, along with a steadily tightening supply of houses should mean that slower inflation doesn’t slip into outright price falls. Is it boom and bust again?...

Against the odds. Like the UK, US business managers remain more up-beat about activity than official figures suggest. The US service-sector PMI was 57.8 in April, high above the 50-mark signalling expansion and besting the series average of 55.9. As the service sector accounts for almost 80 cents in every $1 of output in the US, this bodes well for a turnaround in economic performance in Q2. Managers’ optimism is encouraging them to take on staff at the fastest rate since summer 2014. Spring may only just have sprung, but for the US, it brings hope of better economic weather!...

Much too much, much too young. The healing of the euro zone's labour market is painfully slow. Unemployment was unchanged at a rate of 11.3% between February and March. Despite an upturn in the economy in recent months unemployment is down a mere 0.1% from Q4 last year. Of course the recovery remains in its infancy and it will take many quarters of decent growth to start making sizable dents into the euro zone's unemployment rate. And divergences between countries remain stark. Spain's unemployment rate remains a staggering 23%. Fixing that is a generational project. The Euro zone countries are still in deep trouble and how can they reverse this?....The future is very bleak!....

A licence to print money. Euro zone inflation moved from -0.1% in February to 0% in March, as energy price declines eased slightly and food price inflation moved marginally higher. Inflation should begin to rise very gently in the coming months but, like the UK and elsewhere, price pressures are generally subdued. Core euro zone inflation was just 0.6%y/y, unchanged from February. With core inflation so low and unemployment proving sticky, the European Central Bank can keep its foot to the floor with its €60-billion-a-month quantitative easing programme. How will this quantitative easing programme help?....Very little at present!.....

Another deflation candidate?
China's consumer prices rose by just 0.8%y/y in April, the slowest pace in over five years. In echoes of Western economies, it has given rise to fears that China is headed for a period of deflation. There are certainly other reasons to be worried. The property market suffers from oversupply, there is excess capacity in parts of its industrial sector and producer prices have been in outright deflation for three years. On this basis it's reasonable to assume the Chinese authorities will continue to ease monetary policy as they have done in recent months. China boom is turning to bust!!

The number of dollar billionaires in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!

What will the future bring?

Please share your views.

More Deflation!... Very Interesting Information....

About the Author Colin Thompson

Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Document Manufacturing Plants, Document Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives, Non-Executive Director, Mentor - RFU Leadership Academy, Mentor - Coventry University, Mentor - The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, author/writer Business Advice Section for IPEX, Graphic Display World, NewsUSA, GraphicStart, many others globally, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM/Software/PDF and over 2000 articles and 35 books published on business and educational subjects worldwide. Plus, International Speaker/Visiting University Professor.

--- --- ---
Written and submitted by:

Dr Colin Thompson
Managing Partner
Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589
Mobile: 07831 588310
Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802
email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk
Skype: colin.thompson384


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US and UK Quarter 1 Economics

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