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Global Economics Weekly Brief

Global Economics Weekly Brief



The UK economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2007 and is within a whisker of being larger than it was on the eve of the crisis ( at what cost? - UK government debt is at £1.4 trillion and domestic debt at £ several billion!).



There are also signs of a manufacturing renaissance (for the manufactures that are still in business which are much fewer than 2007!). Even Ireland’s economy is enjoying a moment in the springtime sun - at what cost?. So it was surprising to see US economic growth come to a halt in Q1. Yet this was a stall, not the flashing indicator of engine failure. Unemployment fell sharply in April and the US monetary authority continues to reduce its asset purchases (tapering) with no visible sign of increased economic stress. US government debt is $15 trillion plus and rising rapidly! Who will be paying for all this global debt in the future?

Within a very thin whisker. The UK economy grew by 0.8% in Q1, meaning it is 3.1% larger than this time last year. We haven't seen growth above 3% since 2007 and this acceleration brings the size of UK output to within 0.6% of its previous peak. Yet the UK economy has not rebalanced in the way once hoped. The service sector is already much larger than it was in 2007, while output in the production and construction sectors are still more than 10% smaller than they were and still shrinking. The Printing/media sectors rapidly in decline globally!

Fighting back. However, manufacturing output expanded by 1.3% in Q1. And if April's Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey is anything to go by, growth could be even better in Q2. The sector's PMI reading rose to 57.3 in April, up from 55.8 in March, flying high above the 50-mark that signals expansion. So manufacturing’s fight back has begun, bolstered by higher demand at home and abroad. Hiring intentions are stronger than they’ve been for nearly three years. More foreign imported workers on the way to the UK!

Productivity matters. Although output is rising, we’re actually less productive than they were in 2007. The UK produce less per hour or per person employed than they did. Output per hour was 0.3% lower in 2013 than in 2012. It matters, not least because UK earnings are intimately linked with productivity. So weakness in pay growth is at least partly due to poor productivity. The UK are facing more challenges ahead!

Easing up. Mortgage approvals eased in March. Compared with February, the 67k approvals represented an 11% fall on the previous month. Alongside this, new mortgage lending also fell. Nonetheless, house prices in April rose by 10.9%y/y, their fastest pace since early 2010 according to Nationwide. It is not clear whether the new rules put in place by the Mortgage Market Review will impose some gravity on the market. If not, the Financial Policy Committee may do so. Many new challenges on the way!

A welcome change. Car sales and Dublin property delivered an Irish feel good factor. Ireland's retail sales rose by 9%y/y in March, driven in part by car sales. Meanwhile property prices were up 8%y/y, almost entirely built upon a 14% rise in Dublin. And export demand continues to boost the fortunes of manufacturers. This is all welcome news indeed. Yet with a large debt overhang and unemployment still almost 12%, Ireland's road to a secure recovery has a long way to go.

Blame the cold. US growth all but ground to a halt in Q1, with GDP rising at an annualised rate of just 0.1%. Although bad weather in January dented activity, such a severe slowdown looks odd. The US Federal Reserve took the news in its stride, confirming that it will continue to taper (reduce) its asset purchases. It feels activity has picked up recently and the Q1 number was a blip. Almost on cue, the US equivalent of the manufacturing PMI hit 54.9 in April, up from 53.7 in March. US debt is rising rapidly and the future globally is not rosy!

Job done. The US economy created an impressive 288,000 additional jobs in April. Yet even this news is somewhat eclipsed by the unemployment rate falling from 6.7% to 6.3%. The actual number unemployed fell almost three-quarters of a million, with the number of long term unemployed down too. Job growth is widespread across sectors, but is particularly high in the professions, construction and retail (including bars and restaurants). The US consumer is alive and kicking (and indeed eating and drinking). More challenges ahead with opportunity!

Cooling. In contrast with the UK, a little heat is coming out of the US housing market recovery. House prices were unchanged m/m in February according to Case Shiller. Year-on-year growth still looks strong at 13% but that reflects rapid increases in the middle of 2013. Average prices stand pretty much where they were six months ago. Higher mortgage rates likely explain most of the slowdown, evident in the sharp fall in refinancing activity, down 76% from last May (yes, that is seventy-six percent). So many challenges ahead!

A gradual descent, for now
. China's economy continued to slow in Q1, albeit gradually. Although output expanded by a healthy-looking 7.4%y/y, it’s the slowest pace since 2012 and the slowdown is set to stay for a while. The question is how the authorities respond. Inflation, already low, looks set to fall further. As the world’s largest goods exporter, what happens in China does not stay in China. Consequently, price growth may weaken across the globe. While that may be good news for the UK and consumers generally, it could bring the Eurozone closer to deflation.
National Debt Up as UK Sinks deeper in to the Red! The UK government borrowed nearly £14 million `every hour` last month plunging Britain ever deeper into the red. The UK national debt hit £1.25 trillion or 74% of national income and around £50,000 for every household in the country. The national debt is rapidly increasing month-on-month, when will it stop?


UK debt - Global public debt as a percent of GDP (2009/2010)
In 2011 Britain's volume of debt was ranked 18th internationally according to the CIA World Factbook. Many other countries had larger debt burdens. For example, Japan had a National debt of around 194% of GDP, whilst that of Italy was more than 100%. The National debt of the United States reached 100% of GDP in November 2011.

See also;
Ø 2011 United Kingdom budget
Ø Economic history of the United Kingdom
Ø Economy of the United Kingdom
Ø Eurozone crisis
Ø The National Fund
Ø UK Debt Management Office

Five of Six Economic Recovery Indicators Retreat
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/economic-recovery-indicators-retreat-02-2014


Watch 2014 globally very closely!

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY - Institute for Fiscal Studies - click on the connection on the left.

* `10-Step Double-Dip Recession Survival Guide` - click on the connection below for comprehensive information.
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/double-dip-recession-survival-guide

--- --- ---
Written and submitted by:

Dr Colin Thompson
Managing Partner
Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589
Mobile: 07831 588310
Office: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802
email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk
Skype: colin.thompson384


http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk

The Cavendish Academy
http://www.linkedin.com/e/-tc85tw-gbkla9w4-1f/vgh/3212542/
--- --- ---

Global Economics Weekly Brief

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