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Global Economics Recovery?

Global Economics Weekly Brief

Recovery?

There are tentative signs that the base of the recovery is broadening. Manufacturing output rose at the start of the year and shoppers closed their purses and wallets a little and continue to do so. Some of the steam might be easing output of the housing market.



It’s still too soon to declare that we’re having a ‘Goldilocks recovery’ – not too hot, not too cold – but repeats of recent data would be welcome. Watch `very` carefully the global unrest that will impact on the whole world!

Strong starts. UK manufacturers started the year as they left the last: with output on the way up. Following a 0.3%m/m rise in December, production rose 0.4%m/m in January. That puts it an impressive 3.3% higher than last year. Construction fared better still, with building up 1.8%m/m and 5.4%y/y. Its revival has been supported strongly by housing (supported by the UK government subsidy on housing). But industrial and infrastructure construction are still struggling. Also, the traditional print/media sectors are in rapid decline globally!

Retail sales growth eases. The British Retail Consortium reported shoppers taking it a bit easier on the wallet in February. The value of retail sales growth slowed to 0.7%y/y, from January's 5.4%y/y. The housing recovery was a boom with home accessories the top performing category, followed by furniture and flooring. Incomes remain under pressure, so some slow-down in growth was likely on the back of January's strong showing, which highlights the fragility of a consumer-led recovery. More debt mounting up to the highest levels ever recorded!

On the turn? The latest survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) suggests that the pace of house price growth is set to slow. The largest expected slowdowns are in London and the South East. RICS puts this down to an easing in pent-up demand, as reported increases in new buyer enquiries in February were one third of November’s level. The boom to bust as started!

UK Government orders in BIG numbers. £187 billion is spent by the UK government on goods and services with private companies each year and increasing! £20 billion of this goes to just/only 39 companies with `very` close connections! £37 billion of government spending is on construction look who is connected in these companies! 25% of `all` government contracts will go to small and medium sized firms by 2015, the government has pledged (but will it happen?) Their share of direct spending stood at 10.5% in 2012/13. 170 days is the time it takes the government to award contracts, 53 days longer than the EU average. Only Greece and Ireland take longer!

A bad start in Europe. Euro zone factory output declined by 0.2% in January but was up 1.2%y/y. Policy makers surely welcomed growth in peripheral economies like Spain and Italy, up by 0.2% and 1% respectively. But they will be worried about core countries like France – where production dropped by 0.3%m/m and for the second consecutive month – and above all the Netherlands where output fell heavily by 6.4%m/m in January, following a 2.1%m/m decline in December. A rapid decline is happening in main land Europe! Plus, more unemployment on its way and rising rapidly!

US shoppers thaw. US retail sales rose 0.3%m/m in February, the first rise in three months. The rebound was broad-based with sporting goods stores and department stores both recording large monthly gains. However, some consumers may still be struggling with the bad weather as the category that includes online sales rose 1.2%m/m and 6.3%y/y. Of course, those figures may simply represent the continuing shift of many consumer purchases to the online world. The online world is rapidly taking over from the high street retail!

Changing habits. Have you noticed more opportunities to have your car washed by hand, rather than by those slightly terrifying automatic washers? The Office for National Statistics has added car washing by hand to the basket of goods and services used to calculate inflation. (Cash payment driven, so do they pay tax, probably not!) As shopping habits change so does the basket. DVD recorders have gone. In come internet streaming, flavoured milk and tubs of fresh fruit. On one level this is amusing. The serious side is that inflation influences interest rates. There's a link between what you pay for watching "Breaking Bad" and your mortgage payments. Watch very closing rapid rising in food/fuel/energy etc!

Productivity matters. Data released last week show that, across the UK regions, there are large differences in output per hour worked. Predictably, London was miles out in front. It was 33% more productive than the UK average in 2012, and a whopping 63% higher than Northern Ireland, which is the least productive part of the UK. But before we go over the top with praise for London, let's have some international perspective. It is only on a par with average productivity levels in France, Germany and the US. The debate about how to improve productivity is relevant for all parts of the UK. The UK is not only London, so look at the very high productivity levels in the Midlands and North!

Size matters. The average public sector employee earns more than their private sector counterpart. Part of the reason is that public sector workers are typically more experienced and more highly qualified than those in the private sector. (are they?) But the biggest differentiator is employer size. Workers in large organisations tend to earn more than those in smaller ones. Public sector employees earn between 2-3% more than private sector workers, due to their skills and other factors. But if all workplaces were the same size the private sector would be ahead by 1-2%. It is not what you know but who you know to get a job!

New normal = low interest rates. Bank Rate has been at 0.5% for five years. Governor Carney has already said a rise is not imminent and that when rates start to rise, the pace will be slow. The MPC’s David Miles recently explained why he believes that rates are now permanently lower than they were before 2008. That could be the ‘new normal’.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) UK latest reports show us that there are now 30.1m people in the working population in the UK. If you look closely at their figures you’ll see that (do we believe these figures?):- The Self Drive Worker Sector has grown at a faster pace than the Full Time Employment Sector. Against last week’s triumphalism rhetoric from Government about employment levels going up and unemployment going down, an equally as truthful – but equally as important - interpretation of the ONS figures announced in late January 2014 says something strikingly different.

If you separate out purely full time employees on a payroll from everyone else – who we call “Self Drive Workers” – and compare them with the same ONS figures at 31.3.13, what has happened is that the percentage of the total UK working population represented by purely full time workers on a payroll has actually `gone down` from 53.7% to 53.3% and the percentage of the total UK working population represented by “Self Drive Workers” has actually gone up from 46.5% to 46.7%.

(Self Drive Workers are those who need, either wholly or in part, to find their own work, their own “clients” – their own things to do – with their infinitely variable and often uncertain levels of reward. This part of the UK labour market – about half and, we submit, rising - is not recognised, not understood and certainly not supported. It has immense implications for the future economic prospects, even viability, of the UK and also for those `senior` business people opting for this working lifestyle.) For those who would like to examine the ONS figures supporting my view (available on the ONS website – EMP01) and read more about it click here - http://tinyurl.com/qg482c8
* Europe as a very serious issue with rapid unemployment especially with the youth in `every` country that impacts daily!

European Youth Unemployment = 24% and rising rapidly

UK Youth Unemployment = 20% and rising rapidly

400,000 Graduates came on to the market last year in Europe

960,000 = Under 25`s are unemployed in the UK

Only one in ten school leaves takes up an apprenticeship in the UK

European Youth Unemployment to rise by another 10% + over the next 10 years

85 Richest People have Half of World`s Wealth! Wealthiest `85 people` have as much as poorest `3.5 billion people` globally! The 85 richest people on the planet have accumulated as much wealth between them as half of the world`s population, political and financial leaders have been warned ahead of their annual gathering in the Swiss resort of Davos. Their wealth is estimated as $18.5 trillion cash with investments in companies hidden away in tax havens around the world. The power of these 85 people on the world leaders is staggering! While 70% of people globally live in countries where the gap between rich and poor has grown rapidly over the last few years. Where will it end? What do you believe will happen globally because of the wider gap of the poor becoming more poor and the rich getting richer?

Five of Six Economic Recovery Indicators Retreat
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/economic-recovery-indicators-retreat-02-2014


Watch 2014 globally very closely!

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY - Institute for Fiscal Studies - click on the connection on the left.

* `10-Step Double-Dip Recession Survival Guide` - click on the connection below for comprehensive information.
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/double-dip-recession-survival-guide

Global Economic Crisis

Colin Thompson
DDL: + 44 (0) 121 244 0306

Mobile: 07831 588310

Main T: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802

email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk

Skype: colin.thompson384

http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk

http://www.colinthompson.org.uk

Global Economics Recovery?



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