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Global Economics - Bank Rate

March 10, 2014

Global Economics Weekly Brief



Silver for 25. Gold for 50. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) might last week have received a piece of construction timber. It is five years since Bank Rate was cut to 0.5%, where it remains and `wood` is the traditional fifth anniversary gift.



With rising output and employment we would normally be looking out for signs of inflation at this stage in a recovery. But, outside the housing market, signs there are none. It’s an even money chance that the MPC will be picking up a lump of iron when the sixth anniversary comes round next March. Many challenges ahead!

Carney happy anniversary. On 5 March 2009, the MPC cut Bank Rate to an all-time low of 0.5%. Back then, there weren't many people who thought rates would still be there five years later. But they are. Last week the MPC voted to leave rates on hold and quantitative easing unchanged. And markets think there's roughly a 50-50 chance they'll still be on hold when the MPC meets in March 2016. When it eventually comes, normalisation is unlikely to be a straightforward process. But it will hopefully be a welcome sign that our economy is on the mend. If the Bank Rate was rising in the future the economy would be in disarray, with companies `going-bust`, houses being repossessed and rising unemployment! Governments globally should read history and then they would not continuously make the same mistakes!

UK firms need a few more helping hands. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for services and manufacturing were broadly unchanged in February at levels in the mid-to-high 50s that signal decent growth. Most encouragingly there remain strong signs of rising employment. The jobs index across all sectors reached its highest level in the 15 year history of the series. With the construction PMI posting a strong number at 62.5 in February, the UK economy has made a very good start to the year. Full time employment is not 100%, only `49%`, the rest of employment is part-time and zero rated contracts!

Higher still. House prices rose by 7.9%y/y in February, according to the Halifax, the fastest increase since October 2007. Average house prices are now to 4.8 times average earnings, almost the same as at the peak of the market in 1989. Further evidence that the housing market is alive and kicking came in the form of a 42%y/y increase in mortgage approvals. At its lowest point, approvals had fallen to 20% of the number at the peak in 2006. So it could be argued we are almost halfway there. But is the housing market recovering on a prayer? Is it another boom and bust situation?

Shop prices continue to ease pressure on wallets. According to the British Retail Consortium retail shop prices fell for the tenth consecutive month in February, by 1.4%y/y. That’s the longest period of falling prices since the series began in December 2006. Non-food prices fell 3.0%y/y, while food prices were 1.1%y/y higher. This is good news for wallets as falling prices boost spending power, but it means retailers have to fight hard to boost sales. Borrowings on credit cards is at the highest levels ever recorded!

US labour market ploughs onwards, whatever the weather. The US economy created another 175,000 jobs in February, despite the wild weather that has been blamed for much of the recent disappointing data. The two million people who have found work in the last 12 months have pushed the unemployment rate down from 7.7% a year ago to February's 6.7%. The labour market is healing and this should make the Fed's next tapering decision a little easier. But it won't solve the issue/problem of when to raise rates. On that topic, New York Fed President Dudley recently expressed a preference for moving the focus away from the unemployment rate towards a broader range of measures, much like the Bank of England has set out. Watch out for unemployment rising later in the year!

European Central Bank (ECB) held firm on rates. The ECB kept rates on hold at the record-low of 0.25%. President Draghi again said that rates may be cut if inflation declines from the current 0.8%, but claimed the euro zone doesn’t have a deflation problem (yes, it is!). However, the ECB expects inflation to average 1% in 2014, well short of its ‘below but close 2%’ target and rising to 1.3% in 2015 and to 1.7% at the end of 2016. The issue/problem is that domestic demand remains subdued in the monetary block as austerity continues to bite and unemployment remains at 12%. More unemployment in the future with Italy, France and Spain leading the high rise in unemployment!

… but some positive signs. In February, the euro zone grew at its fastest pace since mid-2011, the composite PMI rising from 52.9 to 53.3. Manufacturing led the way and services chipped-in too. Germany saw the fastest growth in the region, with recovery gaining traction in Italy and Spain. However, France continued to shrink rapid!

New normal = low interest rates. Bank Rate has been at 0.5% for five years. Governor Carney has already said a rise is not imminent and that when rates start to rise, the pace will be slow. The MPC’s David Miles recently explained why he believes that rates are now permanently lower than they were before 2008. That could be the ‘new normal’.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) UK latest reports show us that there are now 30.1m people in the working population in the UK. If you look closely at their figures you’ll see that (do we believe these figures?):- The Self Drive Worker Sector has grown at a faster pace than the Full Time Employment Sector. Against last week’s triumphalism rhetoric from Government about employment levels going up and unemployment going down, an equally as truthful – but equally as important - interpretation of the ONS figures announced in late January 2014 says something strikingly different.

If you separate out purely full time employees on a payroll from everyone else – who we call “Self Drive Workers” – and compare them with the same ONS figures at 31.3.13, what has happened is that the percentage of the total UK working population represented by purely full time workers on a payroll has actually `gone down` from 53.7% to 53.3% and the percentage of the total UK working population represented by “Self Drive Workers” has actually gone up from 46.5% to 46.7%.

(Self Drive Workers are those who need, either wholly or in part, to find their own work, their own “clients” – their own things to do – with their infinitely variable and often uncertain levels of reward. This part of the UK labour market – about half and, we submit, rising - is not recognised, not understood and certainly not supported. It has immense implications for the future economic prospects, even viability, of the UK and also for those `senior` business people opting for this working lifestyle.) For those who would like to examine the ONS figures supporting my view (available on the ONS website – EMP01) and read more about it click here - http://tinyurl.com/qg482c8
* Europe as a very serious issue with rapid unemployment especially with the youth in `every` country that impacts daily!

European Youth Unemployment = 24% and rising rapidly

UK Youth Unemployment = 20% and rising rapidly


400,000 Graduates came on to the market last year in Europe

960,000 = Under 25`s are unemployed in the UK

Only one in ten school leaves takes up an apprenticeship in the UK

European Youth Unemployment to rise by another 10% + over the next 10 years

85 Richest People have Half of World`s Wealth! Wealthiest `85 people` have as much as poorest `3.5 billion people` globally! The 85 richest people on the planet have accumulated as much wealth between them as half of the world`s population, political and financial leaders have been warned ahead of their annual gathering in the Swiss resort of Davos. Their wealth is estimated as $18.5 trillion cash with investments in companies hidden away in tax havens around the world. The power of these 85 people on the world leaders is staggering! While 70% of people globally live in countries where the gap between rich and poor has grown rapidly over the last few years. Where will it end? What do you believe will happen globally because of the wider gap of the poor becoming more poor and the rich getting richer?

Five of Six Economic Recovery Indicators Retreat
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/economic-recovery-indicators-retreat-02-2014


Watch 2014 globally very closely!

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY - Institute for Fiscal Studies -

* `10-Step Double-Dip Recession Survival Guide` - click on the connection below for comprehensive information.
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/double-dip-recession-survival-guide


Colin Thompson
DDL: + 44 (0) 121 244 0306

Mobile: 07831 588310

Main T: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802

email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk

Skype: colin.thompson384

http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk

http://www.colinthompson.org.uk


Global Economics - Bank Rate


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