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Global Economics - You can't Always Get What you Want

Global Economics Weekly Brief

You can't Always Get What you Want

The Rolling Stones cannot always get what they want, even after 50 years, and policymakers across the globe know just how they feel. Even though industrial output improved in the Eurozone and the UK, it’s not expected to last. Trade deficits are shrinking rapidly in the US and the UK, but the reasons why aren’t always good news.



Despite EU finance ministers quashing the latest crisis in Spain, uncertainty about the Eurozone is still a very big drag on confidence. Even the fall in China’s economic growth rate in Q2 was partly due to less demand from Europe and the US. Finding a credible solution to the Eurozone crisis is not only what we all want, it’s what we need. The world economic down slide is gathering speed!

China’s growth slowed to lowest pace in three years. China's economy grew by 7.6%y/y in Q2, down from 8.1% in Q1. The larger than expected slowdown raised some eyebrows in the rest of the world as it hit home that problems in Europe and the US were partly to blame. China’s domestic situation isn’t all that bad though. Retail sales growth was broadly unchanged at 13.7%y/y in June. But industrial production was disappointing. Its growth slowed to 9.5%y/y, consistent with continuing weakness in survey data. But with investment growing at a double digit pace, it’s far too soon to worry that China’s economy will grind to a halt. Investors have to put their money somewhere for a return!

UK launched its Funding for Lending scheme.
Levels of lending in the UK economy have been worrying policymakers who were keen to see more of the fruits of quantitative easing coming through in greater investment and household spending. This scheme is designed to boost lending by giving banks access to funds at lower rates, but only if they expand net lending. Its success will depend on both this support to the supply of credit and the extent of demand from households and businesses. Banks are still stashing cash for a very rainy day soon!

Euro area finance ministers agreed €100bn bailout to shore up Spanish banks.
The seriousness of the situation in Spain led the EU finance ministers to act decisively. Spanish banks will receive €30bn and the government will be allowed an extra year to cut its budget deficit. But VAT will increase from 18% to 21% and further spending cuts are on the cards. More issues to come in the next few months!

Exports lift the UK trade balance for first time in four months in May. The UK trade deficit fell to £2.7bn in May, down from £4.1bm in April. The improvement was entirely due to more exports, even to the beleaguered Eurozone, although car, oil and aircraft exports to non-EU markets were responsible for the lion’s share of the improvement. Rising exports to non- EU markets is great news, especially if it can be maintained, since growth and demand prospects in these regions offer more hope for further export expansion and hence a boost to the UK’s recovery. Still more exports needed to `fill the gap`!

The US trade deficit shrank in May.
Unlike the UK, the 3.8%m/m improvement in the US trade deficit was due to lower imports as falling oil prices helped reduce the overall import bill. The good news is that capital goods imports increased in May, which implies some business confidence. But the bad news is that lower consumer goods imports show this group, so important to the US economy, is still feeling the heat. Weaker global growth is also taking its toll. US goods exports were flat on the month and services exports were only slightly improved. More unemployment on its way!

Industrial production improves in UK and Eurozone in May.
The 1%m/m rise in UK industrial production was welcome, but special factors mean it should be treated with caution. Jubilee celebrations shifted the late May bank holiday into June, which meant an extra day’s output. On top of this extra food, drink and transport helped. But annual growth is still negative at -1.6%y/y in May - the 14th consecutive annual fall in UK industrial production. Eurozone industrial production rebounded in May after April’s 1.1%m/m fall. Germany takes the credit, but poor performance in other core countries raises questions about how much the industrial sector will be able to support growth in future.

US monetary policymakers in ‘wait and see’ mode as the economic climate darkens. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting revealed Board members had become gloomier about the US’s prospects. Their individual projections of growth averaged 2.2% and 2.5% for 2012 and 2013 respectively (about half a percentage point down) as slowing domestic growth and the continued crisis in Europe weighed heavily. Despite the weaker sentiment and a “few members” wanting more stimulus immediately, the majority of the Board wanted to keep the powder dry, to be used only if the slowdown continues to worsen.

LIBOR Banking Scandal Deepens; Barclays Releases Damning Email, Implicates British Government

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/libor-banking-scandal-deepens-barclays-releases-damning-email-implicates-british-government-20120704#ixzz20VaQK9X5

What are your views?

Plus,

The LIBOR Banking Scandal Explained

The LIBOR Banking Scandal Explained - click on the connection below for comprehensive information.
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/libor-scandal

What are your views?

Plus, the banks globally are still stashing cash at the highest levels ever recorded, why? We all know why, don`t we! Will we see a run on the banks soon?

The Euro currency will continue to suffer in the hands of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland followed by France who are `all` in `deep` financial difficulty as first stated here in January 2008. Who will leave the euro currency first? Then who will follow? What future as the Euro? Watch this space!

--- --- ---

More Economics and Business Inspiration:
`Accelerate with Impact` -
by Colin Thompson ISBN: 978-1-84549-289-2

Accreditation: UK Registered Learning Provider:10025755

ENDS
Note: About the Author Colin Thompson

Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Print Manufacturing Plants, Print Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives and Non-Executive Director, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM's/Software and over 400 articles published on business and educational subjects worldwide. International Speaker and Visiting University Professor.


Read more newly added articles, which you can add to, on NewsUSA-MyFeedPortal: http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/libor-scandal <--- The Largest Scandal The World has Ever Seen - The LIBOR Scandal.


Colin Thompson
DDL: + 44 (0) 121 244 0306

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Main T: + 44 (0) 121 244 1802

email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk

Skype: colin.thompson384

http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk

http://www.colinthompson.org.uk


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