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Global Economic Waltz

Global Economics Weekly Brief

Global Economic Waltz

The waltz: where dancers hold each other close, spinning in a line of ever-increasing circular intensity yet always ending up in the same place. It can seem the same with Greece’s debt negotiations. But three meetings today could determine whether this is Greece’s last waltz.

If a deal of sorts is reached, which is likely, the dance goes on. Greece needs to enter the `real world!..... Greece have been in a dream for decades!..... Euro zone countries and bankers/lenders need to wake up and be accountable and responsible for their actions of not operating with responsibility over the Greece problem!.....

Bigger problems and many issues. Euro zone annual inflation rose in May to 0.3%. In less strained times it would be a job well done for the European Central Bank (ECB). Its bond-buying programme, among other factors, has helped swiftly free the single-currency area from the hold of deflation. But these aren’t normal times and the ECB has far bigger issues to contend with. Number one is doing all that is politically feasible to keep the Greek economy functioning and Greece in the euro zone. Euro zone in very deep trouble!.....

You're hired. Although the unemployment rate remained at 5.5% in the three months to April, the UK labour market is in decent shape. For one thing there are jobs aplenty, full-time employee ones too, which are up by 450k since April 2014. And it pays to work as average earnings growth picked up yet again, to 2.7%y/y. Given inflation is at best negligible it’s another welcome rise in workers’ spending power. Wages are low that is why jobs are vacant!...

Still low. UK official inflation rose in May, by a mere 0.1%y/y. That reverses the 0.1% fall in the year to April. Food, petrol and utility bills remain lower than this time last year, helping cash spread that little but further. Inflation will probably begin to rise later in the year but for now it remains low. So called ‘core inflation’, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, rose just 0.9%y/y, less than half the decade average. Watch very closely over the next few months!....

No action. Inflation might be a rounding error away from zero but the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee all agreed that no change in policy was needed in June. On their analysis inflation would be 1.5% higher were it not for the falling prices of food, energy and imported goods. They expect these effects to be transitory and for inflation to swing upwards at the end of the year. But it’s far from straightforward. The MPC expected consumers to spend more of the windfall from lower inflation, but at the moment they’re not doing quite as much as thought. That suggests the Bank is getting a little less confident about the UK’s growth for the rest of this year. Growth is very questionable!...

A blip. Low inflation must be catching, as there was a significant slowing of house price growth in April. Average prices grew by 5.5%y/y, down from 9.6%y/y in April. London's house price growth fell a long way, to 4.3%y/y, the first time it’s been slower than the UK average since 2009. Price growth should pick up again as price expectations have been rising across the UK for a few months now, nowhere more so than in London. Not enough houses for buyers at present so house prices are high!...

I’ll take both please. Low inflation and higher earnings make a happy combo for consumers and it’s currently good news for retailers too. Retail sales grew a robust 4.4% in volume terms in May. With average growth this year of close to 5%, it’s been the strongest period for retail sales since 2004. Department stores and clothing stores are both seeing strong sales but it’s household goods that are flying off the shelves. Sales are up 12%y/y. Our love of shopping endured forever. How long will last for?...

Not much to see. US prices increased by 0.4%m/m in May, the biggest jump in more than two years. Gasoline prices were the main culprit, up a whopping 10%. Excluding volatile items like food and energy, core inflation was just 0.1%m/m. Like in the UK, as the effects of last year’s oil price slide slip out of the numbers the headline rate will rise. But there’s no sign of underlying inflationary pressure. That’s one reason the Fed stayed its hand again. Watch very closely the US!...

Not yet. Fifteen of the Fed’s seventeen policy makers think US interest rates should rise this year. Just when is less clear. Growth has picked up since a poor first quarter and jobs are being created at a decent rate. But inflation is dormant, there’s still slack in the job market and a series of disappointing data releases show that this isn’t an economy running at full tilt. Markets reckon the Fed will hike just before Christmas but it’s a finely-balanced call, with early 2016 quite possible. Interesting, let's see if the US have the b...s to follow this through!....

IP waiting for you. US economic data continue to confuse as industrial production fell again in May, down 0.2%m/m, after falling by 0.5% in April. Manufacturing output matched the decline in overall production, down 0.2%m/m in May. However, we may well discover that the disappointing manufacturing figures more reflect a stronger dollar and weaker global conditions rather than a weak domestic economy. Indeed, the production of motor vehicles and parts, which tend to reflect US consumer demand, rose by 1.7% in May, the third consecutive monthly rise. Do we believe these statistics?...

Global slowdown. China in trouble....Japan just out of trouble...Europe still in trouble....UK hanging on.....US trying harder...Future!.... What is the future?

The world needs to wake up to their responsibilities!...See below;

"The World spent $1,735 BILLION on war in 2012. It would take approximately $135 billion to TOTALLY ERADICATE POVERTY."

The number of dollar billionaires in the world has more than doubled to 1,645 since the financial crisis of 2008. Also, the 85 richest people saw their fortunes increase by a total of £150 billion over the past year - equivalent to £415 million a day! Plus, earlier research found these 85 people had access to wealth equal to that of half the world's population. This = the issue/problem of global inequality! Also, these billionaires could/should invest in the future by using their wealth the world will grow more prosperous!

--- --- ---
Written and submitted by:

Dr Colin Thompson
Managing Partner
Direct: + 44 (0) 121 247 4589
Mobile: 07831 588310
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email: colin@cavendish-mr.org.uk
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