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Comparing Crashes- Good overview of how badly we are in line with the crash of 1929-1933.


Crash of 2009 (2008/2007) - 2010 and 2014; comparing to 1930

Media looking at 1930 compared to 2008, NOT 1929 compared to 2008!
2007 even actually...

2014 Updates Below -

Update December 9, 2008
Updated January 26, 2009
(Updated Charts Below- will continue to update charts as necessary.)
Updated February 22, 2009
(Added Business Week article and Kondratieff Wave Cycle Charts.)
Updated March 6, 2009
(Added UPDATE 4 from dshort.com & their "four bear markets" chart.)
Updated March 14, 2009
(Added long-range EW chart from 1720-2050)
Updated April 6, 2009
(New Chart comparing 1937 to 2009- very similar...)
2013 Stock Crash Charts Updates
Updated September 10, 2013
(Added an 2013 UPDATED chart from dshort.com & their "four bear markets" chart.)
Updated September 10, 2013
(Chart showing Macro, real value of S&P 500 compared to USD stock values.)
2014 Stock Crash Charts Updates
Updated February 11, 2014
(Parallels between the stock market now and pre 1929 crash)


This disturbed me, for it is the same old banter, albeit perhaps by accident in this case, that Peter Schiff dealt with leading up to before this finical crisis started. Now we see an article in the Wall Street Journal online edition, titled:

"1931 and 2008: Will Market History Repeat Itself?"
Written on November 22, 2008 in a section called, get this, "The Intelligent Investor."

I am sure the writers idea was nice enough and he is clearly trying to put this all in a positive perspective. Yet, the comparison of 2008 (2007/2008) to 1932 is likely way off.

When you read it, you'll notice comparisons like this, and then you'll perhaps see what I mean why comparing 2008 (even perhaps 07/08) to 1929 is way more accurate and important at this stage:

"The U.S. economy, as measured by gross national product, shriveled by 14.7% in 1931. Although no one expects the economy to grow in the fourth quarter of this year, it is flat year to date and shrank by "only" 0.3% in the third quarter. In 1931, one out of every six Americans was unemployed; today, one in 16 is out of work.

I don't foresee another Great Depression, but I am under no illusion that it can't happen. My parents and grandparents lived through it, and their memories of it have been branded on my brain."

SOURCE: http://online.wsj.com/

Now, they should be lining up their ducks in a proper row... 2007 is 1929, the start of the crash, as this chart shows here below.


SOURCE: http://dshort.com/

And another chart:


SOURCE: http://seattlebubble.com/

NOTE: This chart is only till OCT 2008- thus, draw another big straight wiggle down to the 50% level for around today...


And here is another chart comparing the various historical crashes to today's (also from Oct, the 30th in this case, so make the cliff drop lower again...)


SOURCE: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com

Interesting study no the S&P 500 price/earnings ratios.
It just had to come down...
Look at the spike into the 2000's- incredible...
Link to Study & Charts

Hopefully main stream media will not lead the sheep into the slaughter house, for this is only the first waves down. We will make new lows most likely this year still, bounce a bit around when Obama takes office and then see new, very low stocks and likely not long after that again- meaning that by 2010 we will then be in a situation, at least when looking at the percentage drop in the markets, that will perhaps be just as low as the Great Depression.

Will that mean a depression with food lines and the likes? Figure it out. Do some investigations- be alert, aware and prepared. During the last depression, 90% of the folk lived on the land and 10% in the cities. Today, it is more like 90% in or near cities and only 10% can actually farm to some degree.

As I write this, I see on CNN.com that Obama is set to announce what amounts to a modern day new deal. He wants to employ some 2.5 million Americans on public work projects (re-building roads, schools, bridges, etc) to help get us back to work. These sort of moves are historical and only happen every so often- the last time; to get us out of a depression.

Peace, patience and practice makes perfect.

---end---

UPDATE:
The best way to describe this bear market is that it started in 2007. Here is a great chart, that they seem to keep up-to-date, comparing the four great bears- notice how we are right on par now with the crash of 29':



Click hereSOURCE: http://dshort.com/

UPDATE 2:
Jan. 26, 2008
Chart from StockTock's Social community, comparing 1937/1938 to 2008/2009 ytd:

As the author of this chart, rob46 points out:
"The pattern from 1937 through 1938 looks very similar to the current daily chart of the Dow as pointed out by MKTMike."
(BTW- we are, as of today, about by the blue line on the "E" wave heading down. What this shows is how STRANGE it is that the same sort of pattern and wave formations are forming.
(See article here on Elliot Wave and formations historically.)
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=200

UPDATE 3:
Feb. 23 2008
MSM admits: Stock Decline Hits Depression Levels

and check out this interesting twist on EW called Kondratieff long Wave Cycle, which shows we are in for a LONG hard depression (More along the lines of 1873 than 1923):


SOURCE: http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/home.html

UPDATE 4:
The latest "four bear market" compassion chart about this stock market crash, which is amazingly similar to the Great Depression:

Click here for larger version
SOURCE: http://dshort.com/

UPDATE 5:
Elliott Wave Chart 1720-2050
Looks like we are in for one long-ride down...

SOURCE:
http://ew-indextrader.blogspot.com

UPDATE 6:

SOURCE: http://social.stocktock.com

2013 STOCK CRASH 1929 COMPARISON CHART UPDATES

The 2013 "four bear market" compassion chart about this stock market crash, compared to the Great Depression, 1973 oil crisis and 1990 crash:

Click here for larger version
SOURCE: http://dshort.com/


This chart and associated article on Zerohedge shows the published value of S&P 500 shares compared to the real, Macro value - NOTE - this is important to figure in when looking at the 1929 to 2013 and such comparison charts:

Click here for larger version
SOURCE: www.zerohedge.com

UPDATE Feb 11, 2014
Parallels chart between the stock market now and pre 1929 crash:



Other sites on the comparisons between 1929 and the depression crashes of the stock markets in 2008 or 2013 and going forward:

http://www.bestcashcow.com/the_economy/article/sol_nasisi/dow-jones-industrials-crash-analysis-great-depression-versus-today

http://financemanila.net/2008/10/crash-of-1929-and-2008-compared/


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