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Sun, 18 Nov 2018 14:35:08 +0000 LIBOR Scandal http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/libor-scandal <font size="3">The LIBOR Banking Scandal Explained<br><br>This video, titled, "<a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZWDemn_njg>Eliot Spitzer - LIBOR Mega scandal (total corruption) - YouTube</a>" explains quite well the big mess 16 major banks in the world, and likely more, have created:<br><br><object width="480" height="360"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/qZWDemn_njg?version=3&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/qZWDemn_njg?version=3&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="360" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object><br><br>More information on <a href=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor>LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)</a><br>in part reads:</font><br><font size="2">"<i>Libor rates are calculated for ten different currencies and 15 borrowing periods ranging from overnight to one year and are published daily after 11 am (London time) by Thomson Reuters.[4] Many financial institutions, mortgage lenders and credit card agencies set their own rates relative to it. At least $350 trillion in derivatives and other financial products are tied to the Libor.[5]</i>"</font><br><br><font size="3">Did you read that?! "<i><b>At least $350 trillion in derivatives and other financial products are tied to the Libor.</b></i>"!<br><br><font size="2">Read the <a href=http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/qe-global-economics>Global Economics Weekly Brief - QE Too Little Too Late</a> on NewsUSA as well.</font><br><br><br><font size="3">Here is a list of the 16 banks that make up the LIBOR committee (not saying they are all involved in this scandal, but as many as 20 banks have been named in the LIBOR rate fixing scandal.):<font><br><b><br><font size="2">LIBOR Panel Members</b><br><i>Bank of America<br>Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd<br>Barclays Bank plc<br>Citibank NA<br>Credit Suisse<br>Deutsche Bank AG<br>HSBC<br>JP Morgan Chase<br>Lloyds TSB Bank plc<br>Rabobank<br>Royal Bank of Canada<br>Société Générale<br>The Norinchukin Bank<br>The Royal Bank of Scotland Group<br>UBS AG<br>West LB AG</font><br></i><br><font size="3">The <i>LIBOR Scandal</i>. More then meets the eye and the banking systems regulators.</font> Wed, 11 Jul 2012 21:47:01 +0100 Financial System Has Broken Down, The Fix & Where to Invest http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/financial_system_has_broken_down_the_fix__where_to_invest <a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/16_Financial_System_Has_Broken_Down,_The_Fix_%26_Where_to_Invest_files/King%20World%20News%20-%20The%20System%20Is%20Broken%20Down,%20The%20Fix%20%26%20Where%20To%20Invest.jpg"><img src="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Media/object005_1.jpg" style="float:left; padding-right:10px; padding-bottom:10px; width:182px; height:126px;"/></a>With investors around the world wondering what can be done to fix the broken financial system, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, writes exclusively for King World News to let readers know what to expect and how to fix the system as it continues to collapse.  Here is what Pento had to say about the situation: “We now live in a phony economic world where central bankers rule without check. Any hint of weakening data, which is actually a sign of reality and healing returning to the economy, is quickly met with the promise of more disastrous money printing. Last week we saw U.S. factory orders down and initial jobless claims rise. In Europe, we saw the Spanish bank bailout fall flat on its face and interest rates spike in Spain and Italy.” Sun, 17 Jun 2012 10:37:58 +0100 QE3 is Back On if Job Reports are Weak – Bill Gross http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/qe3_is_back_on_if_job_reports_are_weak__bill_gross Bill Gross of PIMCO spoke to Bloomberg TV&#8217;s Trish Regan this afternoon and said that he is doubtful of another round of quantitative easing in June, but &#8220;if we see some weak employment reports over the next two months, then QE3 is back on.&#8221; He also said that there’s a risk of a double-dip recession [...]<div class="feedflare"><br><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?a=kUi_K2ttW5U:1CyxfzBfdyk:dnMXMwOfBR0"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?d=dnMXMwOfBR0" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?a=kUi_K2ttW5U:1CyxfzBfdyk<img src="./img/smilies/icon_smile_set1_biggrin.gif" width="20" height="20" title="Lach" />7DqB2pKExk"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?i=kUi_K2ttW5U:1CyxfzBfdyk<img src="./img/smilies/icon_smile_set1_biggrin.gif" width="20" height="20" title="Lach" />7DqB2pKExk" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?a=kUi_K2ttW5U:1CyxfzBfdyk:yIl2AUoC8zA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?a=kUi_K2ttW5U:1CyxfzBfdyk:I9og5sOYxJI"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/wsp/main/feed?d=I9og5sOYxJI" border="0"></img></a><br></div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/wsp/main/feed/~4/kUi_K2ttW5U" height="1" width="1"/> Fri, 27 Apr 2012 12:41:35 +0100 The Successful Business Case - Business Case Risk http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/successful-business-case-risk <font size="3">The Successful Business Case<br> <br><img src="http://www.graphicstart.com/images/Successful-Business-Case.jpg"><br><br>Good business case analysis will not eliminate risk in decision making, but it can reduce the uncertainty to a minimum, measure what remains, and provide the means for minimizing risk as the action goes forward.</font><br><br>Business Case Risk Part III: <br>Can We Really Trust These Results?<br><br>Do you trust your business case results enough to act on them? Should you? It's one thing to project good results from projects, products, or partnerships--assuming things go as planned. It's another thing to trust the predictions.<br><br>Part I of this letter discussed pitfalls on the road to getting the accountability and "comfortable certainty" that decision makers are looking for. Part II showed how good risk and sensitivity analysis can measure the likelihood of seeing different outcomes from you actions. In Part III below, we decide whether or not to trust the business case results.<br><br><b>The Devil is in the Assumptions</b><br>The key to making that decision lies in understanding the assumptions behind the cost and benefit estimates. Remember that good business projections should not be viewed as the output of a "black box" predicting system or a high-powered analysis that very few people understand. Ideally the case builder wants to position business case results like this:<br><br>"I have drawn several pictures of the way the future may work out (scenarios). These are detailed and concrete scenarios based on assumptions about many factors, each of which comes with some uncertainty. However, if the assumptions stand, these results certainly follow." All the uncertainty, in other words, lies in clearly stated assumptions, not in the way that costs and benefits are projected from them.<br><br>Whether or not we trust the projections depends on what we know and believe about the assumptions. Below is a simple example, using a single cost item estimate and three assumptions. The approach is the same, however, when analyzing a full cost/benefit cash flow statement from the case (for more on what belongs in a business case, and why, please see one of our books by clicking the images below. <br><br><b>Can You Trust This Estimate?</b><br>Management in a network services company is deciding whether or not to launch a new customer service offering. They will go forward with the service only if they are confident it will be profitable. This calls for a decision support business case, with a large number of estimated cost and benefit items.<br><br>Here is their approach for estimating one cost item, annual labour costs for service delivery. The estimated is based on just three assumptions.<br><br><img src="http://www.graphicstart.com/images/Bussiness-Case-Risk.jpg"><br><br>The average values are the most likely values in the eyes of case builders using the expected averages:<br><br>Annual labour cost estimate = <br>12 months * Average No. of calls per month * Onsite time * Labour rate = <br>12 * 100 * 4.00 * £80 = £384,000<br><br>The road from assumption to cost estimate is out in the open for all to see and evaluate. If the assumed values turn out exactly at the averages given, no doubt about it, the annual cost of labour will be £384,000.<br><br>Should management trust that estimate? Remember, these decision makers are highly risk averse. They will go forward only if they have confidence in the projections. If the cost of labour really turns out to be more than £500,000 the service becomes unprofitable. How likely is that?<br><br><b>Run the Future 10,000 Times</b><br>Risk analysis addresses such questions by applying Monte Carlo simulation1 to a financial model. In this case, the "financial model" is just the formula above.<br><br>Notice first the ranges of possible values for each assumption: the case builder expects an average 100 calls for month, but in fact the number could be more or less. However, the case builder is very certain that it will not be less than 70 or more than 135. The other assumptions also can--and probably will--differ from the expected value, but the case builder is very sure they will fall within the ranges given. With the e assumptions viewed as ranges of possibilities, and with a few more assumptions about the likelihood of different assumption values,2 we can use Monte Carlo simulation to "run the future" 10,000 times and summarize the different cost estimates that appear.<br><br>Here is what the case builders found with their first-pass simulation run3 There is a 50% probability of seeing an actual cost of £384,000 or more. That's no surprise: we already knew the expected average.<br><br><img src="http://www.graphicstart.com/images/Bussiness-Case-Chart.jpg"><br><br>But these risk-averse decision makers are more than a little uncomfortable with a 20% chance of having actual costs hit £500,000 or more. Moreover, the 90% confidence interval for the cost estimate is very wide: £240,000 through £530,000.<br><b><br>Removing Uncertainty</b><br>Can they do anything to build confidence in seeing that labour costs stay low enough to make the service profitable? Some very clear guidance comes from another result of the simulation exercise: sensitivity analysis:<br><br><br>While performing the risk analysis, the simulation program was also keeping track of the correlation between each assumption and the forecast result (here, the cost figure). This chart tells us that the dominant assumption, by far, in controlling different cost results, is the assumption about time spent per service call.<br><br>If case builders can reduce the uncertainty in the "time per call" assumption, they can reduce the uncertainty in the projected cost. Here, it turns out that more discussions with the service product manager involved, and with the service personnel training manager, led the business case builders to narrow the range of "near certain" average onsite time requirements from 1-7 hours to 3-5 hours (very occasionally there may be a much longer or much shorter onsite call time, but they are very sure now that the average onsite time will be in the narrower range, 3-5 hours).<br><br>Case builders also reduced the range of estimates for "average labour rate" from £60-£100/hr to a much narrower range of £75-£85 per hour. Very sure now that the assumptions will fall in the narrower ranges, the case builders re-ran the simulation program and produced this result:<br><br>The most likely result is still £384,000, but now the probability of an actual cost at £500,000 or more is virtually 0, if you can believe the new assumptions about the assumptions!<br><br>Furthermore, management can be 90% confident that the actual cost figure will fall between £344,000 and £422,000. If they trust these results, they are ready to implement the service.<br><br><b>Should you Trust These Results?</b><br>The question of trust all comes down to what you believe about your assumptions. If the (now narrower) ranges of possibilities for the assumptions stand, then the probabilities in the final summary graph can be trusted.<br><br>Take action!<br><br>--- --- ---<br><br>`<i>Building An Excellent Business!</i>` is available for immediate purchase by visiting the secure Cavendish eStore online at: <a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a> - customers can download this e-book in PDF Acrobat format immediately after purchase.<br><br>More Economics and Business Inspiration:<br>`<b><a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>Accelerate with Impact</a></b>` -<br>by <a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>Colin Thompson</a> ISBN: <a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>978-1-84549-289-2</a><br> <br>Accreditation: UK Registered Learning Provider:10025755 <br><br>ENDS<br>Note: About the Author Colin Thompson<br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Print Manufacturing Plants, Print Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives and Non-Executive Director, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM's/Software and over 400 articles published on business and educational subjects worldwide. International Speaker and Visiting University Professor.<br><br>The Successful <i>Business Case</i> - Business Case Risk Fri, 18 Nov 2011 18:09:58 +0000 New Greek Euro http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/new-greek-euro <center><font size="5">The New Greek Euro:</font><br><br><img src="http://www.graphicstart.com/images/New-Greek-Euro.jpg"><br><br></center><br><br><font size="3">The Greek Euro, a Eurozone paradox...<br><br><br>Read more economics news about Greece and the Euro here; <a class="bburl" href=http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/eurozone-financial-woes-31-10-2011>The Eurozone Financial Woes - Global Economics Brief</a></font><br><br><br>`<i>Building An Excellent Business!</i>` is available for immediate purchase by visiting the secure Cavendish eStore online at: <a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a> - customers can download this e-book in PDF Acrobat format immediately after purchase.<br><br>Economics and Business Inspiration:<br>`<b><a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>Accelerate with Impact</a></b>` -<br>by <a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>Colin Thompson</a> ISBN: <a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>978-1-84549-289-2</a><br><br>The <i>New Greek Euro</i>, a parody. Tue, 01 Nov 2011 14:18:49 +0000 Economist Roubini: Investing in Currencies- Risk of Global Recession Greater http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/economist-roubini-investing-currencies-risk-global-recession-12-08-2011 <font size="3">Economist, Dr. Roubini sees a greater than 50% chance of a global recession and is investing his money in currencies or cash as he called it. Government stimulus may ultimately promote future bank failures. Watch this <a class="bburl" href=http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/roubini-warns-of-global-recession-risk-2011-08-11/C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735?dist=beforebell#!C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735>MarketWatch.com</a> interview below in video form:<br><br><object id="wsj_fp" width="512" height="363"><param name="movie" value="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/main.swf"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><param name="flashvars" value="videoGUID={C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735}&playerid=2001&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://m.wsj.net/video-players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/"name="flashPlayer"></param><embed src="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/main.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"flashVars="videoGUID={C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735}&playerid=2001&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://m.wsj.net/video-players/&autoStart=false" base="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/" name="flashPlayer" width="512" height="363" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object><br><br><a class="bburl" href=http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/roubini-warns-of-global-recession-risk-2011-08-11/C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735?dist=beforebell#!C036B113-6D5F-4524-A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735>Roubini Warns of Global Recession Risk</a> Fri, 12 Aug 2011 21:51:59 +0100 AAA Ratings in the USA and UK Violence - Global Economics Weekly http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/aaa-ratings-usa-uk_violence-economics-09-08-2011 <font size="3">AA+ for United States<br><br><u>Global Economics Weekly Brief</u><br> <br><b>AAA Lost in the USA, Violence in the UK<br>and let's not forget Italy and Spain...</b><br> <br>A is for AAA status – lost in the US; B is for Italian and Spanish bond purchases by the European Central Bank; and C is for Crikey, how much?!</font> As investors look at low equity values and the huge price of gold. An accumulation of bad economic news sent markets into turmoil last week as worries about the effect of sovereign debt on the global recovery boiled over. Equity markets fell sharply across the world as investors got nervous and sought out safe havens. And if that wasn’t enough for one week, Standard and Poor’s shocked everyone by downgrading the US from its AAA rating. On top of that, fears for the Eurozone forced the European Central Bank to buy Spanish and Italian bonds to try to calm the markets. These developments will take time to digest so things are going to remain very jumpy in the weeks to come. Do Governments and bankers know what they are doing?<br><br><b>Standard and Poor’s downgraded the US from its AAA rating</b>. The US top notch risk rating was a casualty of the messy political negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling. The risk that the US will actually default is still tiny, especially compared with other countries, so perversely US government bond yields fell even after the announcement. But the unprecedented move to downgrade casts another shadow on the US recovery and, as a result, on the pace of the global recovery. More issues to come over the next few months to impact on the global economy.<br><br><b>UK and Eurozone interest rates stay put and ECB bond purchases begin rapidly.</b> There was little doubt that UK and Eurozone interest rates would stay where they were this month. Weaker economic performance along with threats from turmoil in Europe and the US, even before the latest events, made it inevitable that the Monetary Policy Committee and the European Central Bank would keep rates steady. But increasing worries about sovereign debt in Italy and Spain put more pressure on the ECB to act. It announced its bond purchase operations would restart now. This happened perhaps a bit more quickly than ECB President Trichet expected as the Bank intervened to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. But it has helped to reduce borrowing costs for Spain and Italy and gives policymakers a bit more time to sort out the structure for future support. How long can the purchasing of bonds continue?<br><br><b>Manufacturing activity slowed across the globe.</b> Surveys of manufacturing across the world are softening. An index number below 50 indicates contraction, and in the UK, the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell from 51.4 in June to 49.1 - the first contraction in the UK since September 2009. The Eurozone PMI fell from 52 in June to 50.4 in July, while in the US the ISM survey collapsed from 55.3 in June to a sickly 50.9. Even China saw hardly any growth. A collapse in orders was the reason for the slowdown everywhere, except China where stronger domestic demand helped soften the blow.<br><br><b>Eurozone unemployment is steady in spite of the slowdown </b>(look closely over the next few months when unemployment will rise). Unemployment in the Eurozone held steady at 9.9% for the fourth consecutive month in June, but this differs vastly across the region. Things are fine in Austria and the Netherlands where rates fell to about 4%, but not so good in Spain, where unemployment rose to 21% and will continue to rise now more rapidly. The usual worries are likely to put off new hires until there are stronger signs of recovery. There are few signs of this in the retail sector. Like the UK, Eurozone retailers’ sales have been volatile from month to month. But the end result is that sales are 0.5% lower than in June 2010. Like unemployment it’s mixed. Sales were up 3.1%y/y in France, but down by a whopping 7.6% y/y in Spain. Look very closely over the next months when there will be more unemployment especially in Spain and Italy.<br><br><b>Sovereign Debt Crisis Warning Issued By European Commission President.</b> Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, has hit the panic button. As the Eurozone debt crisis worsened, he remained among the most optimistic of EU officials, repeating his faith in the ability of the myriad of rescue packages to prevent further contagion from affecting larger European economies. But no longer.<br><br>Barroso has issued a clear warning to the policymakers in Europe that has a strong note of dire panic. He no longer pretends that the debt-financed rescue stratagems cobbled together by the inept politicians of the European Community are safeguarding larger economies such as Spain and Italy being exposed to the rapidly metastasizing debt crisis. He admits with brutal frankness that the markets “remain to be convinced that we are taking appropriate steps to resolve the crisis.”<br><br>The panicky communication from the European Commission president has sparked a wave of frantic selling among stock markets across the globe, while leading gold to ascend to ever higher prices. Is the handwriting on the wall? It is becoming ever more obvious, even to the formerly sanguine politicians, that the global economic crisis never ended, and that its current phase, the sovereign debt crisis, is getting more dangerous, while the inept policymakers run out of options.<br><br><b>Jittery investors are seeking out safe havens.</b> Uncertainty is not only affecting job prospects, but also investors’ choices, and safety seems to be the name of the game. Gold reached a new high at $1,700/ounce as the traditional favourite mopped up proceeds from equity sales. But Japan and Switzerland also saw capital inflows which threaten their competitiveness. Both took action. The Japanese intervened in the markets and announced an expansion of their asset-purchase program. The Swiss cut rates to almost zero and injected liquidity. With conditions still so uncertain, it’s not clear that this will be enough though.<br><br><b>The US continues to struggle but labour market news is better (mostly part-time jobs)</b>. Surveys are giving clear signs that confidence in general has slipped significantly in the US. But better news on the US labour market may help. Payrolls rose by 117k in July and June's terrible number was revised up by 28K as well. These increases, together with a fall in participation, were enough to bring the unemployment rate down by 0.1% to 9.1%. It remains to be seen whether this will be enough to reassure businesses of the economy's future prospects, especially after the downgrade. But jittery markets make a swift bounce back unlikely.<br><br><b>The `Big Crisis` in the Eurozone – What it means for the UK</b><br><br>Last week politicians in Washington concluded an agreement to raise the US debt ceiling to $14.3trn (£8.8trn) to prevent the `world’s largest economy` from defaulting on its debt repayments. This weekend the Eurozone, the `world’s second largest economy`, faced a similar situation; with fears that the crisis that had seen the bailout of smaller peripheral states such as Ireland, Portugal and Greece, risked spreading to the larger economies of Italy and Spain and in the future others!<br><br>The fear of the slowdown of two of the world’s largest economies saw a dramatic sell off of shares across the world, as investors sought to limit the damage, wiping £3.5trn off stock markets worldwide. <br><br>What prompted concern in Europe were suggestions that current yields for both Italy and Spain are not substantial enough to fund their current rate of borrowing, suggesting that both nations may soon request a bail out from the European Central Bank or risk defaulting. Present talks continue with Spain and Italy this week to `iron` out an agreement for both countries.<br><br>I do not believe we are at the stage where Italy and Spain will default on their loan repayments (but wait and see the out-come of talks this week) also, there is the potential that this will push both countries and other Eurozone economies back into recession. Germany, the richest country in the Eurozone, has the lowest levels of debt; is growing ever more reluctant to continue to write cheques for member countries that lack the fiscal discipline and political will to implement tough austerity measures. Added to this is the weakness of the Berlusconi Government that risks collapsing this month, if the ‘fast paced’ austerity measures that will soon be voted on, fail to go in its favour. <br><br>European leaders such as Germany’s Angela Merkel and President Sarkozy of France have interrupted their holidays to discuss the crisis. David Cameron, himself still on holiday, has telephoned the Governor of the Bank of England and Chancellor Merkel. Ollie Rehn, EU Commission for Economic and Monetary Affairs as well as Jose Barroso, the President of the European Commission, both have called for an increase in the European Financial Stability Facility EFSF at the same time appealing for calm. This mixture of a need for calm and lack of urgency from the Eurozone leaders and influencers is doing nothing to allay investors’ fears. This week will see another stampede on the stock markets globally!<br><br>The UK although not in the Euro is still at high risk, with the threat of contagion to its banking system. The knock on effects could be huge, as when investors lose confidence in a nation’s ability to repay its debt; this in turn has implications on those nation’s banks. Given the interconnected nature of banking, the exposure of the UK banks is very high.<br><br>Investor confidence in the UK is relatively high given the circumstances, but that is due to UK banks’ lending more and UK companies exporting more (at present). But, if UK banks cannot access finance, then they cannot lend to business, if business cannot access finance, then the very fragile UK economy could slow down further. This also slows job creation and leading to even slower growth. This, together with the lack of public sector spending, further dampens economic activity; that could lead to a fall in investor confidence in the UK. Watch this space!<br><br>The potential of a fall in the value of the Euro and Dollar against the pound would see the cost of UK exports rise at a time when costs of living in Eurozone and US are rising, and job creation has stagnated. This fall in revenue for the UK economy could leave the Government no choice but to increase corporation tax, further damaging the recovery.<br><br>The Bank of England will publish its growth forecasts on the 10 August 2011, and it is predicted they will be lower than the 1.75% forecast, with the CBI suggesting growth figures could be around 1.3% ( I believe they are less than 1%). This is due to the UK’s largest trade partners the US and EU engulfed by trouble. UK trade with Europe is 40%, therefore we need Europe to be strong otherwise we will be back in recession (depression).<br><br>These low UK growth forecasts are only further confirmed by news from America that the short lived boost in confidence over 117,000 new jobs being created in the last quarter, has been offset by fears that austerity measures agreed would slow down growth. On Friday, Standards & Poor’s, the credit rating agency downgraded America’s premium AAA+ credit rating to AA+, citing that political initiative on debt reduction did not go far enough, suggesting that tax rises were needed along with adjustments to Medicare. Something both the Republicans and Democrats resisted. <br><br>The S&P report was direct at laying the source of investor unease at the nation’s politicians saying; "the political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed." <br><br>With two the UKs biggest trading blocs’ grinding to a halt the need for a political solution is critical. The markets have demonstrated that investors have lost confidence in the ability of our politicians to stay ahead of the markets. The political inability to compromise and protracted dealings are damaging, whether it was the negotiations over the US debt ceiling or the inadequate fudging to Eurozone debt that we have seen in Greece and now witnessing. <br><br>Investors have seen that both EU and American politicians fudging the problem; throwing good money after bad is not the solution. The announcement that the ECB would buy Italian Government bonds was slow in coming, only highlighting the indecision in that organisation and suggestions that Germany is no longer willing to continue to bankroll such economic ineptitude of other members. If this is the case we could see a breakup of the Eurozone, with those countries that haven’t played by the rules expelled, and made to tough it out on their own. In the States the only comment from the Obama administration is over the debt ceiling and comments that it will ‘push back’ on the S&P rating. <br><br>The UK Government has announced it is monitoring the threat of contagion from US and EU banks, in an attempt to maintain investor confidence, allowing banks to continue lending to businesses. But now is the time for a strong Europe, not a divided one. <br><br>In terms of a silver bullet there is none. But what is needed is a clear consensus and plan across the whole of the Eurozone and US is needed. The calling of a G7 meeting to discuss the crisis is a positive, but politicians need to get back to their desks and postpone their holidays otherwise investors will continue to bulk. Yes, that means you Mr Cameron.<br><br>The causes of the credit crisis in a short, engaging video: click on the link below;<br><br>The Crisis of Credit Visualized:<br><br><iframe src="http://player.vimeo.com/video/3261363?title=0&byline=0&portrait=0" width="400" height="225" frameborder="0"></iframe><p><a href="http://vimeo.com/3261363">The Crisis of Credit Visualized</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/jonathanjarvis">Jonathan Jarvis</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com">Vimeo</a>.</p><br><br>More to come.<br><br>--- --- ---<br><br>`<i>Building An Excellent Business!</i>` is available for immediate purchase by visiting the secure Cavendish eStore online at: <a class="bburl" href="http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk">http://www.cavendish-mr.org.uk</a> - customers can download this e-book in PDF Acrobat format immediately after purchase.<br><br>More Economics and Business Inspiration:<br>`<b><a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>Accelerate with Impact</a></b>` -<br>by <a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>Colin Thompson</a> ISBN: <a class="bburl" href=http://astore.amazon.com/business-books-colin-thompson-20>978-1-84549-289-2</a><br> <br>Accreditation: UK Registered Learning Provider:10025755 <br><br>ENDS<br>Note: About the Author Colin Thompson<br><br>Colin is a former successful Managing Director of Transactional/Print Manufacturing Plants, Print Management/Workflow Solutions companies and other organisations, former Group Chairman of the Academy for Chief Executives and Non-Executive Director, helping companies raise their `bottom-line` and `increase cash flow`. Plus, helping individuals to be successful in business and life in general. Author of several publications, research reports, guides, business and educational models on CD-ROM's/Software and over 400 articles published on business and educational subjects worldwide. International Speaker and Visiting University Professor.<br><br><i>AAA Ratings</i> in the USA and UK Violence Tue, 09 Aug 2011 14:20:55 +0100 US Hits Debt Ceiling http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/us-hits-debt-ceiling <font size="3"><i>US Hits the Debt Ceiling</i><br><b>Federal Retirement Funds the First to be Put on Hold</b><br><br>The U.S. debt hit the ceiling, that was the loud thump you heard. We read in this sober article, where options are few, but to cut spending:</font><br><br>May 16, 2011<br>NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- <b>It's official: The U.S. government hit the debt ceiling on Monday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told Congress.<br><br>Geithner said he would have to suspend investments in federal retirement funds until Aug. 2 in order to create room for the government to continue borrowing in the debt markets. </b><br>Read Full:<br><a href=http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/16/news/economy/debt_ceiling_deadline/index.htm?cnn=yes&hpt=T2>U.S. hits debt ceiling</a><br><br><a href=http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1492525/pg1>Forum Discussion on GLP</a><br><br><font size="3">The current debt limit, set by the US Congress, is set at a staggering 14 trillion and then some! We owe the bankers of the world, with the so called National Debt, more than $14,308,385,181,650.10 <a href=http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/nationaldebt_1430838518165010__nationaldebt>Source - NationalDebt</a><br><br>Additional source: <a href=http://zfacts.com/p/318.html>US National Debt Graph: What They Never Tell You</a><br> Tue, 17 May 2011 08:27:25 +0100 Bernanke the USD and Oil http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/bernanke-usd-oil <font size="3"><i>Bernanke</i> pressuring the <i>USD</i> and pumping <i>Oil</i>?<br><br><i><b>"Ben Bernanke asks us traders, banks and fund managers to assist in pushing down the US dollar"</i></b><br>Oscar Carboni<br><br><br>With the Fed chief, Ben Bernanke's comments yesterday; as the DXY or USD against 6 other major currencies comes close to it's 2008 and historical lows (<a class="bburl" href=http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY>DXY</a> now at 73.19), it is important to tie this all together. Keep in mind, <a class="bburl" href=http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic>oil</a> is going for $112 a barrel as of today...<br><br>Many traders, such as the YouTube famed <a class="bburl" href=http://livewithoscar.com/media.aspx>Short Term Trading Live with Oscar</a>, see this as a positive note for the indices or stocks and a continued downward trend for the USD. In Oscar's video, he goes so far to say this about what the Federal Reserve boss said in yesterday's 1st ever press conference after a Fed meeting, about the USD:</font><br><br><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRLC3aeAs_s"><img src="http://www.graphicstart.com/images/Bernanke-USD-oil.jpg"></a><br><br><i>"Traders, this is my 29th year in this business. One of the things I have learned to do is to listen to The Fed. I know how to plow through information, read through it and figure out what The Fed is trying to tell us. And I am here to tell you this. Ben Berkeake got in front of the cameras today and he had ONE MESSAGE to give us, everything else was fluff traders. I absolutely listened to everything he said, I thought about it for hours. Here is what his message was:</i><br><br><font size="4"><b><i>Ben Bernanke asks us traders, banks and fund managers to assist in pushing down the US dollar!</b></i>"</font><br><br>continues..<br>Source: <br><a class="bburl" href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRLC3aeAs_s>04/28/11 Oscar Carboni talks about the Fed Meeting</a><br><br><font size="3">Now, I have seen Oscar be wrong in the past, but he has also often been right on the money. His analysis seems correct, on face-value. Yet, could the Fed really want to push the USD into a position of all time lows; Bernanke himself admitted in the Q&A afterwards that the USD was at risk of losing it's position as a safe-haven. So what gives?<br><br>Remember, remember, the USD and oil back in mid 2008! History can help us here. As the USD tanked on the DXY to it's low of low's just before the stock implosion, oil skyrocketed! Check out this 2008 piece from May of that month; their analysis turned out to be ON THE MONEY, although a few months early and it also outlines, as history repeats itself, what very well may be at work here:</font><br><br><i>"As the dollar declines in value, so does the price of oil in non-dollar terms," explains Michael Woolfolk at the Bank of New York Mellon. "Consequently, foreigners bid up the price of oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. The result is that the price of crude oil and other commodities rise in dollar terms as the dollar falls in value against other currencies."</i><br>Source:<br><a class="bburl" href=http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=85710>USD/oil negative correlation breaking down: A bullish development for the USD?</a><br><br><font size="3">In effect, if anything what we see is that oil gains FAR MORE, percentage wise, when the USD falls. Both Ben Bernanke and Oscar agree that OIL IS the WILD CARD! So in effect, I do not think they are able to 'see the forest for the trees' at this stage. This is a dangerous situation.<br><br>DXY was started in <a href=http://www.fxtrademaker.com/usdx.htm>March of 1973 - "This is when the world’s biggest nations met in Washington D.C. and all agreed to allow their currencies to float freely against each."</a> Keep in mind, back in 2000 till 2002 the DXY was near the 120 mark. In June of 2008 we saw the DXY enter into the low 72 range. Around that same exact time in 2008, oil spiked up to about $145 dollars a barrel... This was followed by the stock market collapse of 2008.<br><br>Today, once again, the DXY is at 73.19 and oil is going for $112 per barrel on the free markets. Mind you, this is on top of an already battered economy. July is when all of the major corporations who have had carry-on effects from the Japanese disaster and crisis have to report second quarter earnings for 2011. It is possible that many major symbols on the indices will have a tough time hitting their expected targets, due to key parts being delayed in delivery out of Japan. This coupled with the USD low and oil highs could be one trifecta we will all want to hope does come across the finish line.<br><br><i>Bernanke the USD and Oil</i> - you decide. Thu, 28 Apr 2011 13:10:51 +0100 2001-2010: Ten Year Prelude To The Keynesian Endame http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/keynesian-endame <font size="3">The Keynesian Endame<br><br>2001-2010: Ten Year Prelude To <i>The Keynesian Endame</i></font><br><br>In a nut-shell, the consumer is stuck with debt, while the government QE1 and QE2 efforts just ripen the balloon for bursting... Some say this year...<br><br><img src="http://www.graphicstart.com/images/Keynesian-Endgame.png"><br><br>Source:<br><a class="bburl" href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-ten-year-prelude-keynesian-endgame">http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-ten-year-prelude-keynesian-endgame</a><br><br>Even Bill Gross has had it. <a class="bburl" href=http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimcos-observations-us-reaches-keynesian-endpoint-qe2-ponzi-scheme-nothing-profit-illusion>Pimco's Observations As The US "Reaches The Keynesian Endpoint"</a> - The QE2 Ponzi Scheme Is "Nothing But A Profit Illusion" --- <i>The Keynesian Endame</i> Tue, 26 Apr 2011 19:55:33 +0100